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Economic Analysis and Modelling Using Fisher Chain Data

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Author Info
Yanjun Liu
Nell Hamalainen
Bing-Sun Wong
Abstract

Following the 1993 recommendation of the United Nations System of National Accounts, Statistics Canada has switched to using the Fisher chain formula as the official measure to record real expenditure-based GDP in the national accounts in May 2001. This eliminates the substitution-bias problem associated with the Laspeyres formula and yields more accurate measures of economic growth. However, with Fisher chain quantity data, aggregate levels do not equal the arithmetic sum of components. In this paper, we discuss the properties of Fisher indexes, explore various approximation formulas for aggregation and subtraction using Fisher chain data, and derive output and price growth decomposition formulas. We also propose solutions to the difficulties that arise when modelling capital stock-flow accumulation rules and inventory investment.

À la suite de la recommandation des Nations-Unis de 1993 concernant le système de comptabilité nationale, Statistique Canada a choisi d’utiliser la formule idéale de Fisher à titre de mesure officielle pour enregistrer le PIB fondé sur les dépenses dans les Comptes nationaux en mai 2001. Ce changement élimine le problème de préférence de substitutions associé à la formule Laspeyres et améliore la précision de la mesure de la croissance de l’activité économique. Cependant, avec la chaîne de données de Fisher, l’agrégat n’égale pas à la somme arithmétique de ses composantes. Dans le présent document, nous discuterons des propriétés des index de Fisher, nous explorerons les diverses formules d’approximation pour l’agrégation et la soustraction à l’aide de la chaîne de données de Fisher, et nous dériverons les formules de décomposition pour les taux de croissance agrégés et les taux d’inflation en contributions des éléments. Nous proposerons aussi des solutions pour les difficultés qui surviennent lors de la modélisation des règles d’accumulation du capital national, de la circulation des capitaux ainsi que des investissements dans les stocks.

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Paper provided by Department of Finance Canada in its series Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada with number 2003-13.

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Handle: RePEc:fca:wpfnca:2003-13

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  1. Martin Schneider & Markus Leibrecht, 2006. "AQM-06: The Macroeconomic Model of the OeNB," Working Papers 132, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  2. Jeremy Smith, 2004. "Aggregate Labour Productivity Growth in Canada and the United States: Definitions, Trends and Measurement Issues," CSLS Research Reports 2004-04, Centre for the Study of Living Standards. [Downloadable!]
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