Research & Development and Long-Term Economic Growth: A Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis
AbstractWe examine the effect of research and development (R&D) on long-term economic growth using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to deal rigorously with model uncertainty. Previous empirical studies investigated the effect of dozens of regressors on long-term growth, but they did not examine the effect of R&D due to data unavailability. We extend these studies by proposing to capture the R&D intensity by the number of Nobel prizes in science. Using our indicator, our estimates show that R&D exerts a positive effect on long-term growth with posterior inclusion probability of 0.25 using our preferred parameter and model priors.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2011/19.
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision: Jun 2011
research and development; economic growth; Bayesian model averaging.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
- O32 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
- O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-06-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-FDG-2011-06-25 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-INO-2011-06-25 (Innovation)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000.
"Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach,"
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
266, OECD Publishing.
- Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
- Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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