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Research & Development and Long-Term Economic Growth: A Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis

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Abstract

We examine the effect of research and development (R&D) on long-term economic growth using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to deal rigorously with model uncertainty. Previous empirical studies investigated the effect of dozens of regressors on long-term growth, but they did not examine the effect of R&D due to data unavailability. We extend these studies by proposing to capture the R&D intensity by the number of Nobel prizes in science. Using our indicator, our estimates show that R&D exerts a positive effect on long-term growth with posterior inclusion probability of 0.25 using our preferred parameter and model priors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2011/19.

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Length: 14pages
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision: Jun 2011
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2011_19

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Keywords: research and development; economic growth; Bayesian model averaging.;

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  1. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
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