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Conservative Stress Testing: The Role of Regular Verification

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Abstract

This paper focuses on how to calibrate models used to stress test the most important risks in the banking system. Based on the results of a verification of the Czech National Bank’s stress testing methodology, the paper argues that stress tests should be calibrated conservatively and slightly overestimate the risks. However, to ensure that the stress test framework is conservative enough over time, a verification, i.e. comparison of the actual values of key banking sector variables – in particular the capital adequacy ratio – with predictions generated by the stress-testing models should become a standard part of the stress-testing framework.

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File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/13755
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Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2010/12.

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Length: 12pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision: Jul 2008
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2010_12

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Keywords: stress testing; credit risk; bank capital;

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  1. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to find plausible, severe, and useful stress scenarios," Working Papers 150, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  4. Petr Jakubík & Jaroslav Heřmánek, 2008. "Stress testing of the Czech banking sector," Working Papers IES 2008/02, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2008.
  5. Petr Jakubik & Jakub Seidler, 2009. "Estimating Expected Loss Given Default," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2008/2009, chapter 0, pages 102-109 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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