This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Credibility of Exchange Rate Policies in Selected EU New Members: Evidence from High Frequency Data

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Jarko Fidrmuc () (Department of Economics, University of Munich, CESifo)
Roman Horváth () (Czech National Bank, Prague, Czech Republic, Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We examine the daily exchange rate dynamics in selected EU new member states (Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) using GARCH and TARCH models between 1999 and 2004. We show that these countries tried to reduce volatility of the spot exchange rate despite their official policy of free floating and inflation targeting. However, we find that the low credibility of exchange rate policy implied higher volatility of exchange rates when it substantially deviated from the implicit target rates for all countries. Finally, we find significant asymmetric effects of the volatility of exchange rates in all new member states.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/4665
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2006/28.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision: Oct 2006
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2006_28

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Email:
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Natálie Švarcová).

Related research
Keywords: Exchange rates; target zones; ERM II; inflation targeting; GARCH;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
    Other versions:
  2. Kempa, Bernd & Nelles, Michael, 1999. " The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 173-210, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Edison, Hali J. & Miller, Marcus H. & Williamson, John, 1987. "On evaluating and extending the target zone proposal," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 199-224. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Paul Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2005. "Nominal Versus Real Convergence - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 537-555, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Adam Gersl & Tomás Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Viera Chmelarova & Gunter Schnabl, 2006. "Exchange rate stabilization in developed and underdeveloped capital markets," Working Paper Series 636, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Égert, Balázs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2004. "Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition: The tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
  17. Bask , Mikael & Fidrmuc , Jarko, 2006. "Fundamentals and technical trading: behaviour of exchange rates in the CEECs," Research Discussion Papers 10/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Robert F. Engle & Yin-Feng Gau, 1997. "Conditional Volatility of Exchange Rates Under a Target Zone," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 97-06, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  19. Frommel, Michael & Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Exchange rate regimes in Central and East European countries: Deeds vs. words," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 467-483, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2006. "Choice of exchange rate regime in transition economies: An empirical analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 484-498, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Egert, Balazs & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Foreign exchange interventions and interest rate policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in glove?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 121-140, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Petr Kadeřábek, 2006. "Correcting Predictive ModelCorrecting Models of Chaotic Reality," Working Papers IES 2006/31, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jan Ámos Víšek, 2007. "The Instrumental Weighted Variables. Part II. Square root of n-consistency," Working Papers IES 2007/06, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  3. Miloslav Vošvrda & Jan Kodera, 2007. "Goodwin's Predator-Prey Model with Endogenous Technological Progress," Working Papers IES 2007/09, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  4. František Turnovec, 2006. "Publication Portfolio of the Czech Economists and Problems of Rankings," Working Papers IES 2006/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jan Ámos Víšek, 2007. "The Instrumental Weighted Variables. Part III. Asymptotic Representation," Working Papers IES 2007/07, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stavarek, Daniel, 2007. "On Asymmetry of Exchange Rate Volatility in New EU Member and Candidate Countries," MPRA Paper 7298, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Adam Geršl, 2007. "Foreign Banks, Foreign Lending and Cross-Border Contagion: Evidence from the BIS Data," Working Papers IES 2007/08, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ondřej Schneider, 2007. "The EU Budget Dispute - A Blessing in Disguise?," Working Papers IES 2007/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS was sponsored from 1997 to 2002 by the Université du Québec à Montréal.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.