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Market Prices as Indicators of Political Events Evidence from the Experimental Market on the Czech Republic Parliamentary Election in 2002

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Author Info
Tomáš Cahlík () (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
Adam Geršl () (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, Czech National Bank, Prague, Czech Republic)
Michal Hlaváček () (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, Czech National Bank, Prague, Czech Republic)
Michael Berlemann (Faculty of Business Management and Economics, Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany)

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Abstract

According to efficient markets theory, the stock price on a competitive market is the best estimate of the stock’s present value. This is the basic assumption for predictions using experimental markets. The first part of the paper describes the features of such an experimental market, discusses shortly its advantages in providing predictions as compared to traditional opinion polls and identifies some assumptions that can influence its efficiency and predictive accuracy. The second part of the paper is then devoted to the results of the first experimental market organized in the Czech Republic, the political stock market on the Czech parliamentary elections into the Chamber of Deputies in June 2002.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 77.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision: 2005
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp077

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Related research
Keywords: Experimental economics; political stock markets; predictions;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. František Turnovec & Jacek W. Mercik & Mariusz Mazurkiewicz, 2004. "Power Indices: Shapley-Shubik OR Penrose-Banzhaf?," Working Papers IES 48, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2004. [Downloadable!]
  2. Karel Janda, 2003. "Credit Guarantees In A Credit Market With Adverse Selection," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2003(4). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Michal Bauer, 2005. "Theory of the Firm under Uncertainty: Financing, Attitude to Risk and Output Behavior," Working Papers IES 71, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005. [Downloadable!]
  4. Wadim Strielkowski & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2005. "Ready to Go? EU Enlargement and Migration Potential: Lessons from the Czech Republic in the Context of the Irish Migration Experience," Working Papers IES 74, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005. [Downloadable!]
  5. Karel Janda, 2004. "Bankruptcy Procedures with Ex Post Moral Hazard," Working Papers IES 61, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2004. [Downloadable!]
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