The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure and Time Varying Risk Premia: a Panel Data Approach
AbstractThe expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates implies that the spread between short and long bond yields should forecast next period's change in the long yield. Regression based tests have systematically rejected the expectations hypothesis, with estimated coefficients far from their hypothesized values. One explanation of this rejection is that regression tests fail to account for time varying risk premia that are correlated with the spread, causing a downward bias in the estimated regression parameters. This paper uses panel data in order to test the expectations hypothesis in the presence of time varying risk premia.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Exeter University, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 9811.
Date of creation: 1998
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INTEREST RATE ; RISK ; ECONOMETRIC MODELS ; MODELS ; ECONOMETRICS;
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- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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- Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Eckhard Platen, 2012. "Alternative Term Structure Models for Reviewing Expectations Puzzles," Research Paper Series 305, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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