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Asymmetry of Shocks and Convergence in Selected Asean Countries: A Dynamic Analysis

Author

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  • Carlos Cortinhas

    (Department of Economics, University of Exeter)

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate whether structural shocks among ASEAN countries are becoming more symmetrical over time, thus indicating whether this region is becoming better prepared to introduce a common monetary policy. For that purpose a dynamic space-state model that complements the conventional Structural VAR models used in the existing literature was estimated by using the Kalman filter so that the evolution of the degree of shock symmetry and, therefore, the evolution in the degree of convergence could be identified over time, distinguishing between a country's convergence with a regional partner and a more general trend of convergence with the rest of the world.The results showed that in the majority of cases there has been an increase in the degree of convergence of demand shocks in recent years. More importantly, it also showed an increase in divergence in supply shocks for most cases since the beginning of the 90's even when taking into account the Asian Financial Crisis. This is especially true for the periphery countries suggesting that the Philippines and Thailand are not only not converging but actually diverging from the core group. These results have important implications for the prospects of the creation of a common monetary policy in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Cortinhas, 2006. "Asymmetry of Shocks and Convergence in Selected Asean Countries: A Dynamic Analysis," Discussion Papers 0608, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:0608
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    File URL: https://exetereconomics.github.io/RePEc/dpapers/DP0608.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurel, Mathilde & Boone, Laurence & Babetski, Jan, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Supply Shocks Asymmetry: The Case of the Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3408, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Laurence Boone, 2000. "Comparing Semi-Structural Methods to Estimate Unobserved Variables: The HPMV and Kalman Filters Approaches," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 240, OECD Publishing.
    3. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hallett & Ole Rummel, 2000. "Is the European union a natural currency area, or is it held together by policy makers?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(4), pages 657-679, December.
    4. Tamim Bayoumi & Paolo Mauro, 2001. "The Suitability of ASEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7), pages 933-954, July.
    5. de Brito, José Brandão, 2004. "Monetary Integration in East Asia: An Empirical Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 536-567.
    6. Thiam Hee NG, 2002. "Should The Southeast Asian Countries Form A Currency Union?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 40(2), pages 113-134, June.
    7. Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato, 2008. "Whither A Currency Union in Greater China?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-370, July.
    8. Haldane, A G & Hall, S G, 1991. "Sterling's Relationship with the Dollar and the Deutschemark: 1976-89," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 436-443, May.
    9. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Kim, Yoonbai, 2003. "A common currency peg in East Asia? Perspectives from Western Europe," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 331-350, September.
    10. Babetskii, Ian & Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Exchange rate regimes and shocks asymmetry: the case of the accession countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 212-229, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cyriac Guillaumin, 2008. "(A)symetrie et convergence des chocs macroeconomiques en Asie de l'Est : une analyse dynamique," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 114, pages 29-68.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimum currency areas; Monetary integration; Asymmetric shocks; Convergence; Asean.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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