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Further Reflections on Prospect Theory

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Author Info
Susan K. Laury
Charles A. Holt

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Abstract

This paper reports a new experimental test of prospect theoryâ??s reflection effect. We conduct a sequence of experiments that allow us to directly compare choices under reflected gains and losses where real and hypothetical payoffs range from several dollars to over $100. Lotteries with positive payoffs are transformed into lotteries over losses by reflecting all payoffs around zero. When we use hypothetical payments, more than half of the subjects who are risk averse for gains turn out to be risk seeking for losses. This "reflection effect" is diminished considerably with cash payoffs, where the modal choice pattern is to exhibit risk aversion for both gains and losses. However, we do observe a significant difference in risk attitudes between losses (where most subjects are approximately risk neutral) and gains (where most subjects are risk averse). Reflection rates are further reduced when payoffs are scaled up by a factor of 15 (for both real and hypothetical payoffs).

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University in its series Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series with number 2006-23.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:exc:wpaper:2006-23

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  1. Sujoy Chakravarty & Jaideep Roy, 2009. "Recursive expected utility and the separation of attitudes towards risk and ambiguity: an experimental study," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 199-228, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Gregory S. Berns & C. Monica Capra & Sara Moore & Charles Noussair, 2007. "A shocking experiment: New evidence on probability weighting and common ratio violations," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 2, pages 234-242, August. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rick Harbaugh, 2005. "Prospect Theory or Skill Signaling?," Working Papers 2005-06, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Joaquim Silvestre, 2006. "Averting risk in the face of large losses: Bernoulli vs. Tversky and Kahneman," Economics Working Papers 932, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  5. Steffen Andersen & Glenn Harrison & Morten Lau & E. Rutström, 2006. "Elicitation using multiple price list formats," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 383-405, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. William T. Harbaugh & Kate Krause & Lise Vesterlund, 2002. "Prospect Theory in Choice and Pricing Tasks," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-02, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lise Vesterlund & Bill Harbaugh & Kate Krause, 2005. "The Fourfold Pattern of Risk Attitudes in Choice and Pricing Tasks," Working Papers 268, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2005.
  8. E. Elisabet Rutstrom & Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau, 2004. "Estimating Risk Attitudes in Denmark," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 201, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  9. Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Joaquim Silvestre, 2002. "Reflections on Gains and Losses: A 2x2x7 Experiment," Economics Working Papers 640, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
  10. Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Joaquim Silvestre, 2006. "Risk aversion and embedding bias," Economics Working Papers 934, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  11. P Brooks & H Zank, 2004. "Attitudes on Gain and Loss Lotteries: A Simple Experiment," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0402, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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