IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eui/euiwps/eco2013-06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Institutional Investors Flows and the Geography of Contagion

Author

Listed:
  • Damien PUY

Abstract

This paper explores the geography of portfolio flows emanating from institutional investors located in mature markets. We identify precise global and regional dynamics in equity and bond flows. Very few countries happen to receive (or lose) funding in isolation. We also find strong evidence of global contagion: although global waves originate in developed countries, emerging markets’ funding is much more affected. We illustrate this finding by deriving “contagion maps” showing where contagion spreads and with what intensity. In general, our results suggest that “push” effects from advanced market investors affect massively developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Damien PUY, 2013. "Institutional Investors Flows and the Geography of Contagion," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/06, European University Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2013/06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/27618/ECO_2013_06.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    2. Kim, Woochan & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2002. "Foreign portfolio investors before and during a crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 77-96, January.
    3. John M. Griffin & Federico Nardari & René M. Stulz, 2004. "Are Daily Cross-Border Equity Flows Pushed or Pulled?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 641-657, August.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    5. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "On the international transmission of shocks: Micro-evidence from mutual fund portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 357-374.
    6. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    7. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    8. John M. Griffin & Jeffrey H. Harris & Selim Topaloglu, 2003. "The Dynamics of Institutional and Individual Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2285-2320, December.
    9. Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2008. "Home Bias at the Fund Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 333-338, May.
    10. Paolo Pasquariello, 2007. "Imperfect Competition, Information Heterogeneity, and Financial Contagion," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 391-426.
    11. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
    12. Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999. "Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
    13. R. Gaston Gelos & Shang‐Jin Wei, 2005. "Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2987-3020, December.
    14. Fernando Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?," Economics Working Papers 862, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    15. Broner, Fernando A. & Gaston Gelos, R. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2006. "When in peril, retrench: Testing the portfolio channel of contagion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 203-230, June.
    16. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
    17. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard K. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2004. "Managers, investors, and crises: mutual fund strategies in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 113-134, October.
    18. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2008. "The Role of Portfolio Constraints in the International Propagation of Shocks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 1215-1256.
    19. Joshua D. Coval & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 1999. "Home Bias at Home: Local Equity Preference in Domestic Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2045-2073, December.
    20. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    21. Manconi, Alberto & Massa, Massimo & Yasuda, Ayako, 2012. "The role of institutional investors in propagating the crisis of 2007–2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 491-518.
    22. Meng-Fen Hsieh & Tzu-Yi Yang & Yu-Tai Yang & Jen-Sin Lee, 2011. "Evidence of herding and positive feedback trading for mutual funds in emerging Asian countries," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 423-435.
    23. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    24. Brian H. Boyer & Tomomi Kumagai & Kathy Yuan, 2006. "How Do Crises Spread? Evidence from Accessible and Inaccessible Stock Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 957-1003, April.
    25. Joshua D. Coval & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2001. "The Geography of Investment: Informed Trading and Asset Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(4), pages 811-841, August.
    26. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "Hot Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1262-1292, December.
    27. Magnus, J.R. & Powell, O.R. & Prüfer, P., 2008. "A Comparison of Two Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics," Other publications TiSEM 0392dffa-51e0-4bc9-9644-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    28. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
    29. Eduardo Borensztein & R. Gaston Gelos, 2003. "A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-3.
    30. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    31. Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian Lundblad & Tarun Ramadorai, 2012. "Asset Fire Sales and Purchases and the International Transmission of Funding Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2015-2050, December.
    32. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Matos, Pedro, 2008. "The colors of investors' money: The role of institutional investors around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 499-533, June.
    33. Kalok Chan & Vicentiu Covrig & Lilian Ng, 2005. "What Determines the Domestic Bias and Foreign Bias? Evidence from Mutual Fund Equity Allocations Worldwide," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1495-1534, June.
    34. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    35. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    36. C. Emre Alper, 2000. "Stylized Facts of Business Cycles, Excess Volatility and Capital Flows: Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Working Papers 2000/11, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    37. Mr. Gaston Gelos, 2011. "International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2011/092, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    2. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    3. Jean Coulom & Vijay Shenai, 2018. "The Effect of Alternative Measures of Distance on the Correlation of Real Effective Exchange Rate Returns: An Approach to Contagion Analysis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Araujo, Juliana D. & David, Antonio C. & van Hombeeck, Carlos & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2017. "Joining the club? Procyclicality of private capital inflows in lower income developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 157-182.
    5. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Gelos, Gaston & Ichiue, Hibiki & Oura, Hiroko, 2022. "Changes in the global investor base and the stability of portfolio flows to emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Henri Audigé, 2014. "Net flows to emerging markets’ funds and the U.S. monetary policy after the subprime crisis," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. Nasha Ananchotikul & Ms. Longmei Zhang, 2014. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2014/156, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Blanco Cossio,Fernando Andres,Sachdeva,Niharika, 2021. "The Cyclicality of IFC Investments : To Be, or Not to Be, Procyclical," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9746, The World Bank.
    9. Ms. Juliana Dutra Araujo & Mr. Antonio David & Carlos van Hombeeck & Mr. Chris Papageorgiou, 2015. "Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/163, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Nasha Ananchotikul & Longmei Zhang, 2016. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 36., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jul 2016.
    11. Henri Audigé, 2014. "Net flows to emerging markets’ funds and the U.S. monetary policy after the subprime crisis," Working Papers hal-04141341, HAL.
    12. Nasha Ananchotikul & Longmei Zhang, 2016. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 36, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Puy, Damien, 2016. "Mutual funds flows and the geography of contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 73-93.
    2. Kim, Kyungkeun & Lee, Dongwon, 2020. "Equity market integration and portfolio rebalancing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "On the international transmission of shocks: Micro-evidence from mutual fund portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 357-374.
    4. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Gelos, Gaston & Ichiue, Hibiki & Oura, Hiroko, 2022. "Changes in the global investor base and the stability of portfolio flows to emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    6. I. Koetsier & J.A. Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," Working Papers 17-15, Utrecht School of Economics.
    7. Gębka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "International herding: Does it differ across sectors?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 55-84.
    8. Agudelo, Diego A. & Múnera, Daimer J., 2023. "Who are the vectors of contagion? Evidence from emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Bárbara Ulloa & Carlos Saavedra & Carola Moreno, 2015. "A Microstructure Approach to Gross Portfolio Inflows. The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 760, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Söhnke M. Bartram & John M. Griffin & Tae-Hoon Lim & David T. Ng, 2015. "How Important Are Foreign Ownership Linkages for International Stock Returns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3036-3072.
    11. Jinjarak, Yothin & Wongswan, Jon & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2011. "International fund investment and local market returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 572-587, March.
    12. Anil Mishra, 2011. "Australia’s equity home bias and real exchange rate volatility," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 223-244, August.
    13. Luis Opazo & Claudio Raddatz & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2015. "Institutional Investors and Long-Term Investment: Evidence from Chile," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 479-522.
    14. Bijlsma, Melle & Vermeulen, Robert, 2016. "Insurance companies’ trading behaviour during the European sovereign debt crisis: Flight home or flight to quality?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 137-154.
    15. I. Koetsier & J.A. Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," Working Papers 17-15, Utrecht School of Economics.
    16. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    17. Andrade, Sandro C. & Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2010. "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets : The Case of Brazil in 2002," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 926, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    18. Kim, Daehwan & Iwasawa, Seiichiro, 2017. "Hot money and cross-section of stock returns during the global financial crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 8-22.
    19. Jasmine Xiao, 2015. "Domestic and Foreign Mutual Funds in Mexico: Do They Behave Differently?," IMF Working Papers 2015/104, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Bonizzi, Bruno, 2017. "Institutional investors’ allocation to emerging markets: A panel approach to asset demand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 47-64.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Institutional Investors; Mutual Funds; Contagion; Crises; Push-and-Pull factors.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2013/06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cécile Brière (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiueit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.