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Economic Integration in Interwar Poland - A Threshold Cointegration Analysis of the Law of One Price for Poland (1924-1937)

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Author Info
Carsten TRENKLER
Nikolaus WOLF

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Abstract

In this paper we study the issue of economic integration in Poland between 1924 and 1937 by means of a threshold cointegration analysis of the law of one price. We find that the interwar economy can be regarded as integrated but with obvious restrictions which refer to the existence of relevant transaction costs for arbitrage and differences in the level of prices between cities. Moreover, the former partition borders within Poland did not affect economic integration suggesting that the integration policy after the reunification of Poland in 1919 was successful. However, we are not able to assess the impact of the aggregate price level which changed strongly during our sample period.

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Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2003/05.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2003/05

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-
N94 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: 1913-

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  3. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
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  8. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-11, July.
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  9. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Canova, Fabio & Hansen, Bruce E, 1995. "Are Seasonal Patterns Constant over Time? A Test for Seasonal Stability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-52, July.
  11. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
  12. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249. [Downloadable!]
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  13. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Hansen, Bruce E, 1999. " Testing for Linearity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(5), pages 551-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Goodwin, Barry K & Piggott, Nicholas E, 2001. " Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-17, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ihle, Rico & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von, 2008. "A Comparison of Threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37603, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
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