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Structural reforms and external rebalancing in the euro area: a model-based analysis

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  • Lukas Vogel

Abstract

Economic research paper on EMU and open economy macroeconomics The paper uses a 3-region version (small open economy in EMU, other euro area, rest of the world) of QUEST to assess the impact of structural reforms on external positions along two dimensions, namely the impact of flexibility and prudence on the prevention of imbalances and the contribution of structural reforms to their correction. With regard to imbalance prevention, the impact of nominal price/wage flexibility above current levels on the reaction of external positions to bubble/demand shocks is modest and case-dependent; prudent collateral valuation mitigates overborrowing risks. Product market reform, wage moderation and fiscal consolidation can support/accelerate the correction of imbalances as they increase price competitiveness and improve trade/current account balances in the short and medium term (here, up to 5-6 years). Lasting structural reforms bring permanent trade competitiveness gains. The initial improvement of external balances narrows in the long run, however, because growth-enhancing reforms also raise import demand when income rises in the longer term. EMU-wide reforms affect balances with the rest of the world, but do not reduce disparities between EMU member states.

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File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2011/ecp443_en.htm
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 443.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0443

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Cited by:
  1. Evžen Kočenda & Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Short- and long-term growth effects of exchange rate adjustment," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00748599, HAL.
  2. Vogel, Lukas, 2012. "Structural reforms, fiscal consolidation and external rebalancing in monetary union: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1286-1298.
  3. Anna Ivanova, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 12/61, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2012. "A Germans’ dilemma: save the euro or preserve their socio-economic model," Department of Economics Working Papers 1207, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  5. Bettendorf, Timo, 2013. "Feeding the Global VAR with theory: Is German wage moderation to blame for European imbalances?," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79710, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  6. Patrice Ollivaud & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2013. "The Post-crisis Narrowing of International Imbalances: Cyclical or Durable?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1062, OECD Publishing.
  7. Sotirios Theodoropoulos, 2011. "A Wage Policy for External Balance and Employment in EMU Environment: A Theoretical Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 61(3-4), pages 85-102, July - De.
  8. A team of the Working Group on Econometric Modelling of the European System of Central Banks, 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.

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