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Rules and risk in the euro area: does rules-based national fiscal governance contain sovereign bond spreads?

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Listed:
  • Anna Iara
  • Guntram B. Wolff

Abstract

The strengthening of national fiscal frameworks, including numerical fiscal rules, has recently been proposed as an important part of the economic governance reform package for the EU. The strength of numerical fiscal rules can be described along the dimensions of their statutory base, the room to revise budgetary objectives, provisions for their monitoring and enforcement, and their media visibility. With a unique data set summarizing the quality of national fiscal rules along these dimensions, we show that stronger fiscal rules in euro area member states reduce sovereign risk. According to our estimates, yield spreads against Germany of countries with relatively weak fiscal rules could be up to 100 basis points lower if they upgraded their numerical fiscal rules. The legal base turns out to be the most important dimension for the perceived effectiveness of the rules. The effectiveness of the correction and enforcement mechanisms turns out to be very important as well, while the role of the bodies in charge of monitoring and enforcing compliance is somewhat smaller. Overall, national fiscal rules are found to be beneficial for market assessments of governments' ability and willingness to timely service debt: they could thus provide an effective way to implement fiscal discipline.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Iara & Guntram B. Wolff, 2010. "Rules and risk in the euro area: does rules-based national fiscal governance contain sovereign bond spreads?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 433, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0433
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    Cited by:

    1. Luc Eyraud & Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/04, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Tóth, Csaba G., 2017. "Own or inherited? The effect of national fiscal rules after changes of government," MPRA Paper 81178, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Melecky, Ales & Skutova, Marketa, 2011. "Fiskální pravidla v zemích Visegrádské čtyřky [Fiscal Rules in the Visegrad Countries]," MPRA Paper 34028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Szczypińska, Agnieszka, 2012. "Does the halo effect still hold? Implications for the euro-candidates from the analysis of the EA bond market - the crisis perspective," MF Working Papers 15, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 29 Aug 2012.
    5. Julia Bachtrögler & Harald Badinger & Aurélien Fichet de Clairfontaine & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2014. "Summarizing Data using Partially Ordered Set Theory: An Application to Fiscal Frameworks in 97 Countries," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp181, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    6. Jocelyn Boussard & Francisco de Castro & Matteo Salto, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and Public Debt Dynamics in Consolidations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 460, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Csaba G. Tóth, 2019. "Valuable legacy? The effect of inherited fiscal rules," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 3-30, January.
    8. Dionysios K. SOLOMOS, Dimitrios N. KOUMPAROULIS, 2012. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy in the EMU Context: An empirical approach (1981-2010)," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(31), pages 95-102, February.
    9. Kaplanoglou, Georgia & Rapanos, Vassilis T., 2011. "The Greek fiscal crisis and the role of fiscal governance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 36432, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Lucio R. Pench, 2012. "Comment on "Fiscal Rules: Theoretical Issues and Historical Experiences"," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 526-529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. de Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2017. "Fundamentals versus market sentiments in the euro bond markets: implications for QE," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85127, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Stasavage, David, 2016. "What we can learn from the early history of sovereign debt," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-16.
    13. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & John Hassler & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ákos Valentinyi & Xavier Vives, 2012. "Chapter 4: The Swedish Model," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 99-114, February.
    14. Christoffel, Kai & Kilponen, Juha & Jaccard, Ivan, 2011. "Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1411, European Central Bank.
    15. Nazim Belhocine & Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba, 2013. "The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads," IMF Working Papers 2013/093, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Dionysios K. Solomos & Dimitrios N. Koumparoulis, 2012. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy in the EMU Context: An Empirical Approach (1981-2010) & the Recent Reform in European Governance," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 117-136.
    17. Kovács, Olivér, 2011. "Hiány, államadósság és fenntarthatóság. Benczes István-Kutasi Gábor: Költségvetési pénzügyek Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, 2010, 358 o [Shortage, state debt and sustainability: István Benczes and Gábo," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 383-387.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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