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Fiscal stimulus and exit strategies in the EU: a model-based analysis

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Author Info

  • Werner Roeger
  • Jan in 't Veld

Abstract

Summary for non-specialistsThis paper uses a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model with collateral constrained households and residential investment to examine the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The presence of credit constrained households makes fiscal policy a more powerful tool for short run stabilisation and reinforces the effects from monetary accommodation at the zero lower bound. There exists an asymmetry between fiscal multipliers of temporary stimulus and multipliers of permanent fiscal consolidation, with the latter being smaller. Fiscal consolidations are likely to have short term negative output effects, but GDP will be higher in the medium and long run. Designing consolidations in such a way as to maximise the long term growth benefits from tax reforms could help to minimise the short term costs.

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File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2010/pdf/ecp426_en.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 426.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0426

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Related research

Keywords: Fiscal stimulus and exit strategies in the EU: a Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy Collateral Constraint DSGE modelling Werner Roeger Jan in 't Veld;

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References

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  1. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
  2. Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2010. "Using a DSGE model to look at the recent boom-bust cycle in the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 397, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
  1. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Felici, Francesco, 2013. "Structural reforms and the potential effects on the Italian economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 88-109.
  2. Vogel, Lukas, 2012. "Structural reforms, fiscal consolidation and external rebalancing in monetary union: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1286-1298.
  3. Michael Kumhof & Dirk Muir & Carlos de Resende & Jan in ‘t Veld & René Lalonde & Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane & John Roberts & Stephen Snudden & Mathias Trabandt & Günter Coenen &, 2010. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," IMF Working Papers 10/73, International Monetary Fund.
  4. European Commission, 2011. "Tax Reforms in EU Member States 2011: tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability," Taxation Papers 28, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.

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