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Projecting future health care expenditure at European level: drivers, methodology and main results

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  • Bartosz Przywara
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    Abstract

    Summary for non-specialistsTo correctly assess the demography-related risks facing public finances in the EU over the next couple of decades and establish adequate policy responses to the demographic, social and economic developments, it is essential to devise a reliable method to estimate future health care expenditure. To tackle this issue, the European Commission and the Economic Policy Committee projected future public health care expenditure in all EU Member States over the period 2007-2060. A unique internationally comparable database has been established and a model built allowing to project health care spending in a common, coherent framework of macroeconomic variables. The model incorporates the most recent developments in demography and epidemiology and draws on new insights from health economics, allowing the comparison of the challenges facing both individual countries' health care systems and European society in its entirety.

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    File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2010/pdf/ecp417_en.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 417.

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    Length: 31 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0417

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    Keywords: Healths Ageing Demography Budgetary projection Public finances Health care expenditure;

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    1. Raphael Wittenberg & Juliette Malley & Linda Pickard & Adelina Comas-Herrera & Derek King, 2006. "Projections of Future Expediture on Long-Term Care for Older People," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(V), pages 49-53.
    2. Frédéric Rupprecht & Alain Quinet & Yannick L'Horty, 1997. "Expliquer la croissance des dépenses de santé : le rôle du niveau de vie et du progrès technique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 129(3), pages 257-268.
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