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The second transition: Eastern Europe in perspective

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  • Stefania Fabrizio
  • Daniel Leigh
  • Ashoka Mody

Abstract

This paper studies the global trade and financial market integration of the countries in Eastern Europe. The countries of Eastern Europe achieved two remarkable transitions in the short period of the last two decades: from plan to market and, then, in the run-up to and entry into the European Union, they rode a wave of global trade and financial market integration. Focusing on the second transition, this paper reaches three conclusions. First, by several metrics, East European and East Asian growth performances were about on par from the mid-1990s; both regions far surpassed Latin American growth. Second, the mechanisms of growth in East Europe and East Asia were, however, very different. East Europe relied on a distinctive—often discredited—model, embracing financial integration with structural change to compensate for appreciating real exchange rates. In contrast, East Asia contained further financial integration and maintained steady or depreciating real exchange rates. Third, the ongoing financial turbulence has, thus far, not had an obviously differential impact on emerging market regions: rather, the hot spots in each region reflect individual country vulnerabilities. If the East European growth model is distinctive, is it sustainable and replicable? The paper speculates on the possibilities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 366.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0366

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Keywords: Growth; Transition; Trade; Financial Integration; The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective; Economic Papers;

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References

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  1. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  2. Stefania Fabrizio & Ashoka Mody, 2006. "Can budget institutions counteract political indiscipline?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 689-739, October.
  3. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth," NBER Working Papers 11528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ashoka Mody & Deniz Igan & Stefania Fabrizio, 2007. "The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 07/97, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Susan Schadler & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2007. "Do Economists' and Financial Markets' Perspectives on the New Members of the EU Differ?," IMF Working Papers 07/65, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2009. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account - Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 100-123, August.
  7. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
  8. Stefania Fabrizio & Ashoka Mody, 2010. "Breaking The Impediments To Budgetary Reforms: Evidence From Europe," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 362-391, November.
  9. Eswar Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2006. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for economic development," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 119-158.
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Cited by:
  1. Winkler, Adalbert, 2010. "The Financial Crisis: A Wake-Up Call for Strengthening Regional Monitoring of Financial Markets and Regional Coordination of Financial Sector Policies?," ADBI Working Papers 199, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  2. Ruben Atoyan, 2010. "Beyond the crisis: revisiting emerging Europe’s growth model," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 329-356.
  3. Marcin, Piatkowski, 2009. "The Coming Golden Age of New Europe," MPRA Paper 19523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.

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