Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Increasing Trends in the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices

Contents:

Author Info

  • OHASHI Kazuhiko
  • OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate whether excess correlations among seemingly unrelated commodity returns have increased recently, and if so, how they were achieved. To this end, we generalize the model of excess comovement, originated by Pindyck and Rotemberg (1990) and extended by Deb, Trivedi, and Varangis (1996), to develop the smooth-transition dynamic conditional correlation (STDCC) model that can capture long-run trends and short-run dynamics in excess comovements. Using commodity returns data from 1983 to 2011, we find that significant increasing long-run trends in excess comovements have appeared since around 2000 in all pairs of agricultural raw materials, beverages, metals, and oils. We confirm that these increasing trends are robust and are not artifacts of the recent financial crisis or changes in the effects of common macroeconomic factors. Moreover, unlike the results above, we find no significant increasing trends in excess comovements among off-index commodity returns. Those findings provide additional evidence for the recent debates about the effect of financialization on commodity-return correlations.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/13e048.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in its series Discussion papers with number 13048.

as in new window
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:13048

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 11th floor, Annex, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) 1-3-1, Kasumigaseki Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-8901
Phone: +81-3-3501-1363
Fax: +81-3-3501-8577
Email:
Web page: http://www.rieti.go.jp/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hong, Harrison & Yogo, Motohiro, 2012. "What does futures market interest tell us about the macroeconomy and asset prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 473-490.
  2. R-P. Berben & W.J. Jansen, 2001. "Comovement in International Equity Markets: a Sectoral View," MEB Series (discontinued) 2001-11, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
  3. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  4. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-89, December.
  5. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Thorp, Susan, 2013. "Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-65.
  7. Deb, Partha & Trivedi, Pravin K & Varangis, Panayotis, 1996. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices Reconsidered," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 275-91, May-June.
  8. Erkko Etula, 2009. "Broker-dealer risk appetite and commodity returns," Staff Reports 406, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  10. Kumar, Manmohan S. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2011. "Dynamics of international integration of government securities' markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 142-154, January.
  11. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:13048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (NUKATANI Sorahiko).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.