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Impacts of FTAs in East Asia: CGE Simulation Analysis

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  • ANDO Mitsuyo
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    Abstract

    In light of the recent movement toward regional integration through bilateral/plurilateral FTAs in East Asia, this paper attempts to estimate the impacts of several FTA scenarios in East Asia, using a CGE model. Although most previous simulation studies on the impacts of FTAs focus only on the liberalization of trade in goods, our paper attempts to consider other possible aspects of FTAs such as various trade and investment facilitation and technical assistance to developing countries in the region. Our results suggest that the economic effects of FTAs with a larger number of members are likely to be greater. Moreover, for the establishment of FTAs among countries such as ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6, and APEC, a high quality of trade liberalization including the agricultural sector is essential. Furthermore, it is vital for an agreement to be comprehensive, covering not only intraregional trade liberalization but also other elements such as facilitation measures and technical assistance. The larger the coverage, in terms of membership and contents, the greater the benefits accrued to the members.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in its series Discussion papers with number 09037.

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    Length: 35 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:09037

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    1. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2001. "Multilateral, Regional, and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0112, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    2. Sulamaa, Pekka & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "Asian Regionalism versus Global Free Trade: A Simulation Study on Economic Effects," Discussion Papers 985, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    3. Robert Scollay & John P. Gilbert, 2001. "New Regional Trading Arrangements in the Asia Pacific?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa63.
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    5. Michael G. Plummer & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2006. "The Post-Crisis Sequencing of Economic Integration in Asia: Trade as a Complement to a Monetary Future," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 59-85.
    6. Shujiro Urata & Kozo Kiyota, 2003. "The Impacts of an East Asia FTA on Foreign Trade in East Asia," NBER Working Papers 10173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Innwon Park, 2006. "East Asian Regional Trade Agreements: Do They Promote Global Free Trade?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 547-568, December.
    8. Adams, F. Gerard & Park, I., 1995. "Measuring the impact of AFTA: An application of a linked CGE system," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 325-365, August.
    9. Warwick McKibbin & Jong-Wha Lee & Inkyo Cheong, 2004. "A dynamic analysis of the Korea-Japan free trade area: simulations with the G-cubed Asia-Pacific model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 3-32.
    10. Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan & Mari Pangestu, 2003. "Indonesian Trade Liberalisation: Estimating The Gains," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 51-74.
    11. Kenichi Kawasaki, 2003. "The Impact of Free Trade Agreements in Asia," Discussion papers 03018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. S.K. Mohanty & Sanjib Pohit, 2007. "Welfare Gains from Regional Economic Integration in Asia : ASEAN+3 or EAS," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22121, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
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