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Impacts of FTAs in East Asia: CGE Simulation Analysis

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Author Info
ANDO Mitsuyo
Abstract

In light of the recent movement toward regional integration through bilateral/plurilateral FTAs in East Asia, this paper attempts to estimate the impacts of several FTA scenarios in East Asia, using a CGE model. Although most previous simulation studies on the impacts of FTAs focus only on the liberalization of trade in goods, our paper attempts to consider other possible aspects of FTAs such as various trade and investment facilitation and technical assistance to developing countries in the region. Our results suggest that the economic effects of FTAs with a larger number of members are likely to be greater. Moreover, for the establishment of FTAs among countries such as ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6, and APEC, a high quality of trade liberalization including the agricultural sector is essential. Furthermore, it is vital for an agreement to be comprehensive, covering not only intraregional trade liberalization but also other elements such as facilitation measures and technical assistance. The larger the coverage, in terms of membership and contents, the greater the benefits accrued to the members.

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Paper provided by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in its series Discussion papers with number 09037.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:09037

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  1. Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2005. "Asian Regionalism versus Global Free Trade: A Simulation Study on Economic Effects," Discussion Papers 985, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2003. "Multilateral, Regional and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(6), pages 803-828, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Innwon Park, 2006. "East Asian Regional Trade Agreements: Do They Promote Global Free Trade?," Pacific Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 547-568, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Shujiro Urata & Kozo Kiyota, 2003. "The Impacts of an East Asia FTA on Foreign Trade in East Asia," NBER Working Papers 10173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kenichi Kawasaki, 2003. "The Impact of Free Trade Agreements in Asia," Discussion papers 03018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael G. Plummer & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2006. "The Post-Crisis Sequencing of Economic Integration in Asia: Trade as a Complement to a Monetary Future," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 3Q, pages 59-85. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Adams, F. Gerard & Park, I., 1995. "Measuring the impact of AFTA: An application of a linked CGE system," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 325-365, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Chirathivat, Suthiphand, 2002. "ASEAN-China Free Trade Area: background, implications and future development," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 671-686. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Warwick McKibbin & Jong-Wha Lee & Inkyo Cheong, 2004. "A dynamic analysis of the Korea-Japan free trade area: simulations with the G-cubed Asia-Pacific model," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 3-32, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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