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Productivity Shocks and National Food Security for Japan

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  • TANAKA Tetsuji
  • HOSOE Nobuhiro

Abstract

Agriculture is the focus of much contention in free trade negotiations. The Japanese government is against liberalizing the rice trade on the grounds that it would threaten "national food security" in the events of such shocks as crop failure, war, and embargo. Trade liberalization is expected to make Japan more dependent upon food imports and to make the Japanese economy more susceptible to these risks. Using a stochastic computable general equilibrium model, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations to quantify impact of rice productivity shocks and export quotas by major rice exporters to Japan and found little chance for trade liberalization for Japan to suffer from such shocks.

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Paper provided by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in its series Discussion papers with number 09004.

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Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:09004

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  1. M. Ataman Aksoy & John C. Beghin, 2005. "Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7464, October.
  2. Yujiro Hayami & Yoshihisa Godo, 1997. "Economics and Politics of Rice Policy in Japan: A Perspective on the Uruguay Round," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, NBER-EASE Volume 6, pages 371-404 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gail L. Cramer & James M. Hansen & Eric J. Wailes, 1999. "Impact of Rice Tariffication on Japan and the World Rice Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1149-1156.
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