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Economic effects of a nuclear-phase out policy: A CGE analysis

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Abstract

The paper investigates the long-run consequences of a phase-out of nuclear energy for the Swiss economy. We apply the CITE model, a CGE model with fully endogenous growth, and complement it with a bottom-up model. We find that the nuclear phase-out can be achieved at relatively low costs, even when the expansion capacities of other technologies are limited. Consumer welfare decreases by 0.4% at the maximum compared to business as usual. Our results show that an economy can cope well with ambitious energy policies through sufficient innovation. Economic growth is not slowed down significantly. The phase-out policy contributes to a structural shift in favor of innovative, energy extensive sectors. It does not work against the climate policy goals but rather accelerates the transition to a less energy-dependent economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich in its series CER-ETH Economics working paper series with number 12/167.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:12-167

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Keywords: Energy and growth; nuclear phase out; CGE model; induced innovation;

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  1. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-66, February.
  2. Hoster, Frank, 1998. "Impact of a nuclear phase-out in Germany: results from a simulation model of the European Power Systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 507-518, May.
  3. Welsch, Heinz & Ochsen, Carsten, 2001. "Dismantling of nuclear power in Germany: sectoral and macroeconomic effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 279-289, March.
  4. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2005. "Integrating Bottom-Up into Top-Down: A Mixed Complementarity Approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-28, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  5. Gerlagh, Reyer & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2003. "Gross world product and consumption in a global warming model with endogenous technological change," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 35-57, February.
  6. Welsch, Heinz, 1998. "Coal subsidization and nuclear phase-out in a general equilibrium model for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 203-222, April.
  7. Böhringer, Christoph & Hoffmann, Tim & Vögele, Stefan, 2000. "The cost of phasing out nuclear power: a quantitative assessment of alternative scenarios for Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-23, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  8. Bohringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2008. "Combining bottom-up and top-down," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 574-596, March.
  9. Bohringer, Christoph, 1998. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down in energy policy modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 233-248, June.
  10. Bohringer, Christoph & Hoffmann, Tim & Vogele, Stefan, 2002. "The cost of phasing out nuclear power:: a quantitative assessment of alternative scenarios for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 469-490, September.
  11. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Schneider, Stephen H., 1999. "Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO2 abatement policies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 211-253, August.
  12. Bretschger, Lucas & Ramer, Roger & Schwark, Florentine, 2011. "Growth effects of carbon policies: Applying a fully dynamic CGE model with heterogeneous capital," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 963-980.
  13. Azusa OKAGAWA & Kanemi BAN, 2008. "Estimation of substitution elasticities for CGE models," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 08-16, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  14. Wing, Ian Sue, 2006. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technologies and the cost of limiting US CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3847-3869, December.
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