IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eth/wpswif/12-167.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic effects of a nuclear-phase out policy: A CGE analysis

Author

Abstract

The paper investigates the long-run consequences of a phase-out of nuclear energy for the Swiss economy. We apply the CITE model, a CGE model with fully endogenous growth, and complement it with a bottom-up model. We find that the nuclear phase-out can be achieved at relatively low costs, even when the expansion capacities of other technologies are limited. Consumer welfare decreases by 0.4% at the maximum compared to business as usual. Our results show that an economy can cope well with ambitious energy policies through sufficient innovation. Economic growth is not slowed down significantly. The phase-out policy contributes to a structural shift in favor of innovative, energy extensive sectors. It does not work against the climate policy goals but rather accelerates the transition to a less energy-dependent economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Bretschger & Lin Zhang & Roger Ramer, 2012. "Economic effects of a nuclear-phase out policy: A CGE analysis," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/167, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:12-167
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cer.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/cer-eth/cer-eth-dam/documents/working-papers/WP-12-167.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    2. Bohringer, Christoph & Hoffmann, Tim & Vogele, Stefan, 2002. "The cost of phasing out nuclear power:: a quantitative assessment of alternative scenarios for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 469-490, September.
    3. Bohringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2008. "Combining bottom-up and top-down," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 574-596, March.
    4. Bohringer, Christoph, 1998. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down in energy policy modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 233-248, June.
    5. Wing, Ian Sue, 2006. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technologies and the cost of limiting US CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3847-3869, December.
    6. Nestle, Uwe, 2012. "Does the use of nuclear power lead to lower electricity prices? An analysis of the debate in Germany with an international perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 152-160.
    7. Nakata, T, 2002. "Analysis of the impacts of nuclear phase-out on energy systems in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 363-377.
    8. Gerlagh, Reyer & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2003. "Gross world product and consumption in a global warming model with endogenous technological change," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 35-57, February.
    9. Azusa OKAGAWA & Kanemi BAN, 2008. "Estimation of substitution elasticities for CGE models," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 08-16, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    10. Hoster, Frank, 1998. "Impact of a nuclear phase-out in Germany: results from a simulation model of the European Power Systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 507-518, May.
    11. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2005. "Integrating Bottom-Up into Top-Down: A Mixed Complementarity Approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-28, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Welsch, Heinz & Ochsen, Carsten, 2001. "Dismantling of nuclear power in Germany: sectoral and macroeconomic effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 279-289, March.
    13. Koschel, Henrike, 2000. "Substitution elasticities between capital, labour, material, electricity and fossil fuels in German producing and service sectors," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-31, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Welsch, Heinz, 1998. "Coal subsidization and nuclear phase-out in a general equilibrium model for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 203-222, April.
    15. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Schneider, Stephen H., 1999. "Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO2 abatement policies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 211-253, August.
    16. Bretschger, Lucas & Ramer, Roger & Schwark, Florentine, 2011. "Growth effects of carbon policies: Applying a fully dynamic CGE model with heterogeneous capital," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 963-980.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Won-Sik Hwang & Inha Oh & Jeong-Dong Lee, 2014. "Assessing the Socio-Economic Effects of Korea's Nuclear Power Policy," Energy & Environment, , vol. 25(5), pages 931-952, July.
    2. Hana Kim & Eui-Chan Jeon, 2020. "Structural Changes to Nuclear Energy Industries and the Economic Effects Resulting from Energy Transition Policies in South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Katarzyna Zawalińska & Jouko Kinnunen & Piotr Gradziuk & Dorota Celińska-Janowicz, 2020. "To Whom Should We Grant a Power Plant? Economic Effects of Investment in Nuclear Energy in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-26, May.
    4. Densing, M. & Panos, E. & Hirschberg, S., 2016. "Meta-analysis of energy scenario studies: Example of electricity scenarios for Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 998-1015.
    5. Bertrand Magné & Jean Chateau & Rob Dellink, 2014. "Global implications of joint fossil fuel subsidy reform and nuclear phase-out: an economic analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 677-690, April.
    6. Meng, Sam & Siriwardana, Mahinda & McNeill, Judith & Nelson, Tim, 2018. "The impact of an ETS on the Australian energy sector: An integrated CGE and electricity modelling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 213-224.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karydas, Christos & Zhang, Lin, 2019. "Green tax reform, endogenous innovation and the growth dividend," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 158-181.
    2. Bruninx, Kenneth & Madzharov, Darin & Delarue, Erik & D'haeseleer, William, 2013. "Impact of the German nuclear phase-out on Europe's electricity generation—A comprehensive study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 251-261.
    3. Carraro, Carlo & De Cian, Enrica & Nicita, Lea & Massetti, Emanuele & Verdolini, Elena, 2010. "Environmental Policy and Technical Change: A Survey," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 4(2), pages 163-219, October.
    4. Meng, Sam & Siriwardana, Mahinda & McNeill, Judith & Nelson, Tim, 2018. "The impact of an ETS on the Australian energy sector: An integrated CGE and electricity modelling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 213-224.
    5. Martin de Wit & Matthew Kuperus Heun & Douglas J Crookes, 2013. "An overview of salient factors, relationships and values to support integrated energy-economic systems dynamic modelling," Working Papers 02/2013, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    6. Bretschger, Lucas & Lechthaler, Filippo & Rausch, Sebastian & Zhang, Lin, 2017. "Knowledge diffusion, endogenous growth, and the costs of global climate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 47-72.
    7. Sebastian Rausch and Valerie J. Karplus, 2014. "Markets versus Regulation: The Efficiency and Distributional Impacts of U.S. Climate Policy Proposals," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    8. Antosiewicz, Marek & Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan, 2021. "Short- and long-run dynamics of energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. Alena Miftakhova & Clément Renoir, 2021. "Economic Growth and Equity in Anticipation of Climate Policy," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/355, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    10. Charlotte Senkpiel & Audrey Dobbins & Christina Kockel & Jan Steinbach & Ulrich Fahl & Farina Wille & Joachim Globisch & Sandra Wassermann & Bert Droste-Franke & Wolfgang Hauser & Claudia Hofer & Lars, 2020. "Integrating Methods and Empirical Findings from Social and Behavioural Sciences into Energy System Models—Motivation and Possible Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-30, September.
    11. Jonathon M. Becker & Jared C. Carbone & Andreas Loeschel, 2022. "Induced Innovation and Carbon Leakage," Working Papers 2022-04, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    12. Xavier Labandeira, Pedro Linares and Miguel Rodriguez, 2009. "An Integrated Approach to Simulate the impacts of Carbon Emissions Trading Schemes," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    13. Tunç Durmaz & Fred Schroyen, 2020. "Evaluating Carbon Capture And Storage In A Climate Model With Endogenous Technical Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-47, February.
    14. Nakata, T, 2002. "Analysis of the impacts of nuclear phase-out on energy systems in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 363-377.
    15. Lucas Bretschger & Roger Ramer, 2012. "Sectoral Growth Effects of Energy Policies in an Increasing-Varieties Model of the Swiss Economy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(II), pages 137-166, June.
    16. Nicholas Rivers & Steven Groves, 2013. "The Welfare Impact of Self-supplied Water Pricing in Canada: A Computable General Equilibrium Assessment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(3), pages 419-445, July.
    17. Lucas Bretschger & Lin Zhang, 2014. "Going beyond tradition: Carbon policy in a high-growth economy: The case of China," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 14/201, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    18. Bretschger, Lucas & Zhang, Lin, 2017. "Carbon policy in a high-growth economy: The case of China," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-19.
    19. Ochoa, Patricia, 2007. "Policy changes in the Swiss electricity market: Analysis of likely market responses," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 336-349, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy and growth; nuclear phase out; CGE model; induced innovation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:12-167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwethch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.