The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank and the Euro-US Dollar Exchange Rate
AbstractThe aim of the research is the evaluation of the exchange rate of the Euro after the first six months of its existence. The main interpretative hypotheses of the research can be summarised in the following points: (i) the evolution of the Euro external value is strictly connected with the agents’ confidence on real, financial and foreign exchange markets; (ii) the ECB monetary policy strategy influenced negatively (or at least neglected) the agents’ confidence and expectations already affected by the negative cyclical conditions of european economy; (iii) the resulting portfolio reallocation determined a short-term capital outflow in favour of US Dollar denominated assets and, hence, an Euro depreciation. The consistency of the whole framework is checked by variables as the Industrial Sentiment, the Interest-Rate Spread, the Implied Volatility of exchange rates, the Risk Reversal, and by the building of a Structural Autoregressive Model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën in its series Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers with number ces9923.
Date of creation: Mar 1999
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-04-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-04-12 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2008-04-12 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2008-04-12 (Monetary Economics)
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- Jörg Bibow, 2001. "The Monetary Policies of the European Central Bank and the Euro's (Mal)Performance: A Stability-Oriented Assessment," Macroeconomics 0109004, EconWPA.
- Carlo Altavilla, 2001.
"Assessing Monetary Rules Performance across EMU Countries,"
International Economics Working Papers Series
ces0108, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
- Carlo Altavilla, 2003. "Assessing monetary rules performance across EMU countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 131-151.
- Jorg Bibow, 2002. "The Monetary Policies of the European Central Bank and the Euro's (Mal-)Performance: A stability-oriented assessment," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 31-50.
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