Interim Employment and a Leading Indicator for the Belgian Labour Market
AbstractThis paper focuses on the construction of a leading indicator for the Belgian labour market based on labour market variables. It is shown that our employment indicator constructed from monthly data on interim work and business failures: (1) resembles quite well the cyclical pattern of observed employment in Belgium; (2) performs not significantly better when product market variables are added; (3) is a better predictor of the cycles in the labour market compared to existing leading indicators for the product market. Furthermore, it was found that even more accurate forecasts of future employment could be derived if information on the past behaviour of total employment (captured by an AR(2)-process) was added to our constructed leading indicator. But this last specification loses its leading character due to long publication delays for the employment data.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën in its series Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers with number ces9823.
Date of creation: Mar 1998
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-04-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2008-04-21 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2008-04-21 (Macroeconomics)
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