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Inflation, Investment Composition and Total Factor Productivity

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  • Stefan Niemann

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  • Michael Evers
  • Marc Schiffbauer

Abstract

This paper employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a financial market friction to rationalize the empirically observed negative relationship between inflation and total factor productivity (TFP). Specifically, an empirical analysis of US macroeconomic time series establishes that there is a negative causal effect of inflation on aggregate productivity. Rather than taking the productivity process as exogenous, the model is therefore set up to feature an endogenous component of TFP. This is achieved by allowing physical investment to be channelled into two distinct technologies: a safe, but return-dominated technology and a superior technology which is subject to idiosyncratic liquidity risk. An agency problem prevents complete insurance against liquidity risk, and the scope for insurance is endogenously determined via the relevant liquidity premium. Since the liquidity premium is positively related to the rate of inflation, the model demonstrates how nominal fluctuations have an influence not only on the overall amount, but also on the qualitative composition of aggregate investment and hence on TFP. The quantitative relevance of the underlying transmission mechanism which links nominal fluctuations to TFP via corporate liquidity holdings and the composition of aggregate investment is corroborated by means of the quantitative analysis of the calibrated model economy as well as a detailed analysis of industry-level and firm-level panel data. Notably, the empirical findings are consistent with both the properties of the agency problem postulated in the theoretical model and its implications for corporate liquidity holdings and physical investment portfolios.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Essex, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 632.

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Date of creation: 13 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:esx:essedp:632

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  1. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
  3. Meh, Cesaire A. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2006. "Endogenous market incompleteness with investment risks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2143-2165, November.
  4. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra56-1, May.
  5. Walde, Klaus & Woitek, Ulrich, 2004. "R&D expenditure in G7 countries and the implications for endogenous fluctuations and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 91-97, January.
  6. V.V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 1995. "The growth effects of monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 18-32.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
  8. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo Manuelli, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth," NBER Working Papers 3241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ryo Kato, 2004. "Liquidity, Infinite Horizons and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 622, Econometric Society.
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Cited by:
  1. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Lai, Ching-Chong & Liao, Chih-Hsing, 2013. "Monetary Policy, R&D and Economic Growth in an Open Economy," Economics Working Paper Series 1315, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  2. Angus C., Chu & Lei, Ji, 2012. "Monetary policy and endogenous market structure in a schumpeterian economy," MPRA Paper 41027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido, 2013. "R&D and Economic Growth in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economics Working Paper Series 1308, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.

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