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Unemployment and Capital Accumulation in Interwar Britain

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George Chouliarakis ()
Abstract

The paper uses the Kalman filter method to estimate the time-varying NAIRU of interwar Britain and shows that, during the 1930s, the NAIRU drifted upwards by approximately four per cent. Also, the paper presents an imperfect competition model which predicts that, in the medium run, the NAIRU depends on labour market institutions, unanticipated total factor productivity growth and capital accumulation. Econometric evidence based on data from interwar Britain does not contradict this hypothesis. In particular, it supports the hypothesis that the rising trend of the NAIRU during the 1930s is partly due to a slowdown in capital accumulation demonstrating, thus, that adverse demand shocks may have long-lasting effects.

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Paper provided by University of Essex, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 565.

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Date of creation: 29 Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:esx:essedp:565

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  1. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-75, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Broadberry, S N, 1986. "Aggregate Supply in Interwar Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(382), pages 467-81, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 297-346. [Downloadable!]
  6. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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  7. Benjamin, Daniel K & Kochin, Levis A, 1979. "Searching for an Explanation of Unemployment in Interwar Britain," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 441-78, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Olivier Blanchard, 1998. "Revisiting European Unemployment: Unemployment, Capital Accumulation, and Factor Prices," NBER Working Papers 6566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Layard, R. & Nickell, S., . "Layard-Nickell," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics layardnickell, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Rowthorn, Robert, 1995. "Capital Formation and Unemployment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 26-39, Spring.
  11. Michael Bordo & Michael Edelstein & Hugh Rockoff, 1999. "Was Adherence to the Gold Standard a "Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval" During the Interwar Period?," NBER Working Papers 7186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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