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Unemployment and Capital Accumulation in Interwar Britain

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  • George Chouliarakis

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    Abstract

    The paper uses the Kalman filter method to estimate the time-varying NAIRU of interwar Britain and shows that, during the 1930s, the NAIRU drifted upwards by approximately four per cent. Also, the paper presents an imperfect competition model which predicts that, in the medium run, the NAIRU depends on labour market institutions, unanticipated total factor productivity growth and capital accumulation. Econometric evidence based on data from interwar Britain does not contradict this hypothesis. In particular, it supports the hypothesis that the rising trend of the NAIRU during the 1930s is partly due to a slowdown in capital accumulation demonstrating, thus, that adverse demand shocks may have long-lasting effects.

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    File URL: http://www.essex.ac.uk/economics/discussion-papers/papers-text/dp565.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Essex, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 565.

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    Date of creation: 29 Sep 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:esx:essedp:565

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    Postal: Discussion Papers Administrator, Department of Economics, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester CO4 3SQ, U.K.
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    1. Solomou,Solomos, 1996. "Themes in Macroeconomic History," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521436212, October.
    2. Bordo, Michael D. & Rockoff, Hugh, 1996. "The Gold Standard as a “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval”," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(02), pages 389-428, June.
    3. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    4. Boyer, George R. & Hatton, Timothy J., 2002. "New Estimates Of British Unemployment, 1870 1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(03), pages 643-675, September.
    5. Broadberry S. N. & Ritschl A., 1995. "Real Wages, Productivity, and Unemployment in Britain and Germany during the 1920's," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 327-349, July.
    6. Benjamin, Daniel K & Kochin, Levis A, 1979. "Searching for an Explanation of Unemployment in Interwar Britain," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 441-78, June.
    7. Broadberry, S N, 1986. "Aggregate Supply in Interwar Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(382), pages 467-81, June.
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