External Debt and Growth in Developing Countries: A Sensitivity and Causal Analysis
AbstractThe paper aims to enhance the existing literature on the debt-growth nexus by analysing the relationship in two separate country groups using the extreme bounds analysis for sensitivity tests and the mixed, fixed, and random coefficient approach that allows for heterogeneity in the causal relationship between debt and growth. Irrespective of the debt measure used, the results are robust across the two country groups—HIPC and non-HIPC—as well as two different testing procedures. The extreme bounds analysis shows that the relationship between a debt measure and economic growth is robust to changes in the conditioning set of information included in the regression equations. The mixed, fixed, and random coefficient approach, on the other hand, show a statistically significant negative causal impact running from each of the four debt measures to economic growth in both country groups. The results have important policy implications. [Discussion Paper No.2001/95]
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by eSocialSciences in its series Working Papers with number id:3151.
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Note: Institutional Papers
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.esocialsciences.org
externaldebt; growth; sensitivityanalysis; causality;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Widmalm, Frida, 2001. " Tax Structure and Growth: Are Some Taxes Better Than Others?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 107(3-4), pages 199-219, June.
- Leamer, Edward E, 1983.
"Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
- Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993.
"Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
- William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hsiao, Cheng & Mountain, Dean C. & Chan, M. W. Luke & Tsui, Kai Y., 1989.
"Modeling Ontario regional electricity system demand using a mixed fixed and random coefficients approach,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 565-587, December.
- Hsiao, C. & Mountain, D.C. & Tsui, K.Y. & Chan, M.W.L., 1989. "Modeling Ontario Regional Electricity System Demand Using A Mixed Fixed And Random Coefficients Approach," Papers m8906, Southern California - Department of Economics.
- Quah, Danny, 1993.
" Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 427-43, December.
- Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
- Foxley, Alejandro, 1987. "Latin American development after the debt crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 201-225, October.
- Jonathan Eaton, 1987.
"Public Debt Guarantees and Private Capital Flight,"
NBER Working Papers
2172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992.
"Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2135, David K. Levine.
- Nair-Reichert, Usha & Weinhold, Diana, 2001. " Causality Tests for Cross-Country Panels: A New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 153-71, May.
- Barro, Robert J., 1990.
"Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth,"
3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
- Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, R.J., 1988. "Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth," RCER Working Papers 130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Sen, Amartya, 1983. "Development: Which Way Now?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 742-62, December.
- HÃ©lÃ¨ne Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2002.
"External Debt and Growth,"
IMF Working Papers
02/69, International Monetary Fund.
- Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 547-570, April.
- Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Aid effectiveness disputed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 375-398.
- Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
- Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Cleaning Up Third World Debt without Getting Taken to the Cleaners," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 31-42, Winter.
- Diana Weinhold, 2004. "A Dynamic “Fixed Effects” Model for Heterogeneous Panel Data," Econometrics 0410003, EconWPA.
- Cooley, Thomas F & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1981. "Identification and Estimation of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 825-44, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Padma Prakash).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.