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Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Output Growth in Bangladesh: A VAR Approach

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  • Md. Habibur Rahman
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the relative importance of monetary and fiscal policies in altering real output of Bangladesh. An unrestricted vector auto regression (VAR) framework based on the St. Louis equations, is used to compute variance decompositions (VDCs)and impulse response function (IRF) through 1000 Monte Carlo Simulations. A 'Monetary— Fiscal Game' under oligopolistic framework is also used to justify the co-ordination and co-operation between the monetary and fiscal authorities. The outcomes of this study imply that monetary policy is relatively more effective than fiscal policy in stimulating real economic activity. The results also confirm the presence of interactions between monetary and fiscal policies. [BB WP no.0601]

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by eSocialSciences in its series Working Papers with number id:2100.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2100

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    Related research

    Keywords: monetary policy; fiscal policy; Bangladesh; vector auto regression (VAR); variance decompositions (VDCs); impulse response function (IRF); Monetary— Fiscal Game; St. Louis equations.;

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    1. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    3. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1977. "Even the St. Louis Model Now Believes in Fiscal Policy: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 365-67, May.
    5. NAJAM us SAQIB & ATTIYA YASMIN, 1987. "Some Econometric Evidence on the Relative Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 541-551.
    6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    7. Keith M. Carlson, 1978. "Does the St. Louis equation now believe in fiscal policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Feb, pages 13-19.
    8. Ali F. Darrat, 1984. "The Dominant Influence of Fiscal Actions in Developing Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-284, Jul-Sep.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    10. Leonall C. Andersen & Jerry L. Jordon, 1968. "Monetary and fiscal actions: a test of their relative importance in economic stabilization," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 11-23.
    11. Gramlich, Edward M, 1971. "The Usefulness of Monetary and Fiscal Policy as Discretionary Stabilization Tools," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 506-32, May.
    12. Ahmed, Ehsan & Johannes, James M, 1984. "St. Louis Equation Restrictions and Criticisms Revisited: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 514-20, November.
    13. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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