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The Time Evolution of the Social Cost of Carbon: An Application of FUND

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  • Anthoff, David
  • Rose, Steven K.
  • Tol, Richard S. J.
  • Waldhoff, Stephanie

Abstract

We estimate the growth rate of the social cost of carbon. This is an indication of the optimal rate of acceleration of greenhouse gas emission reduction policy over time. We find that the social cost of carbon increases by 1.3% to 3.9% per year, with a central estimate of 2.2%. Previous studies found an average rate of 2.3% and a range of 0.9-4.1%. The rate of increase of the social carbon depends on a range of factors, including the pure rate of time preference, the rate of risk aversion, equity weighting, the socio-economic and emission scenarios, the climate sensitivity, dynamic vulnerability, and the curvature of the impact functions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP405.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp405

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Keywords: agency/cost/equity/Greenhouse Gas emission reduction/growth/Policy/protection/risk/risk aversion/scenarios/Social cost of carbon;

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References

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  1. William D. Nordhaus, 1992. "Rolling the 'Dice': An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1019, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Wahba, Mohammed & Hope, Chris, 2006. "The marginal impact of carbon dioxide under two scenarios of future emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3305-3316, November.
  3. Sterner, Thomas & Persson, U. Martin, 2007. "An Even Sterner Review: Introducing Relative Prices into the Discounting Debate," Discussion Papers dp-07-37, Resources For the Future.
  4. Onno J. Kuik & Barbara Bucher & Michela Catenacci & Etem Karakaya & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "Methodological aspects of recent climate change damage cost studies," Working Papers FNU-122, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2006.
  5. Haraden, John, 1992. "An improved shadow price for CO2," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 419-426.
  6. Haraden, John, 1993. "An updated shadow price for CO2," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 303-307.
  7. Maddison, David, 1995. "A cost-benefit analysis of slowing climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 337-346.
  8. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-42, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
  9. Tol, Richard S. J., 2001. "Equitable cost-benefit analysis of climate change policies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 71-85, January.
  10. Tol, Richard S. J. & Narita, Daiju & Anthoff, David, 2008. "Damage Costs of Climate Change through Intensification of Tropical Cyclone Activities: An Application of FUND," Papers WP259, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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Cited by:
  1. Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Targets for global climate policy: An overview," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 911-928.
  2. Fischer, Carolyn & Salant, Stephen, 2012. "Alternative Climate Policies and Intertemporal Emissions Leakage: Quantifying the Green Paradox," Discussion Papers dp-12-16, Resources For the Future.

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