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International Transmission of Business Cycles Between Ireland and its Trading Partners

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Author Info
Goggin, Jean (ESRI)
Siedschlag, Iulia (ESRI)

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Abstract

This paper examines patterns and factors underlying the international transmission of business cycles between Ireland and its trading partners over the period 1980-2007. We estimate a model of simultaneous equations using a panel of cross-country annual data where trade integration, sectoral specialisation and financial integration are considered endogenous. Our results suggest that deeper trade and financial integration had strong direct positive effects on the synchronisation of Irish business cycles with its trading partners. Sectoral specialisation and national competitiveness differentials were sources of cyclical divergence. Sectoral specialisation had however an indirect positive effect on business cycle synchronisation via its positive effect on trade and financial integration. The adoption of the euro has led to more synchronised business cycles between Ireland and its euro area trading partners.

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Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP279.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp279

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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    Other versions:
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  9. Salvador Barrios & Juan Jose Lucio, 2003. "Economic Integration and Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from the Iberian Regions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 497-515, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2004. "Are european business cycles close enough to be just one?," Banco de España Working Papers 0408, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Artis, Michael J & Galvão, Ana Beatriz C & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2003. "The Transmission Mechanism in a Changing World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4014, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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