IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eru/erudwp/wp19-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dornsbush revisited from an asymmetrical perspective: Evidence from G20 nominal effective exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Frédérique Bec
  • Mélika Ben Salem

Abstract

This paper develops an asymmetrical overshooting correction autoregressive model to capture excessive nominal exchange rate variation. It is based on the widely accepted perception that open economies might prefer under-evaluation to over-evaluation of their currency so as to foster their net exports. Our approach departs from existing works by allowing the strength of the overshooting correction mechanism to differ between over-depreciations and over-appreciations. It turns out that most of monthly effective exchange rates for the G20 countries are in fact well characterized by an overshooting correction after an over-appreciation only.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2019. "Dornsbush revisited from an asymmetrical perspective: Evidence from G20 nominal effective exchange rates," Erudite Working Paper 2019-22, Erudite.
    • Handle: RePEc:eru:erudwp:wp19-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.erudite.univ-paris-est.fr/fileadmin/public/ERUDITE/erudwp/ERU-22-19-fb-mbs.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang‐Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2005. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
    2. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2014. "The way out of recessions: A forecasting analysis for some Euro area countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 539-549.
    3. Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "Dornbusch's Overshooting Model After Twenty-Five Years International Monetary Fund's Second Annual Research Conference Mundell-Fleming Lecture," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 1-34.
    4. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
    5. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2008. "Evaluating an estimated new Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2690-2721, August.
    6. Friedman, Milton, 1993. "The "Plucking Model" of Business Fluctuations Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 171-177, April.
    7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frederique Bec & Melika Ben Salem, 2020. "An asymmetrical overshooting correction model for G20 nominal effective exchange rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 1937-1947.
    2. Anella Munro, 2014. "Exchange rates, expected returns and risk," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    4. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03373425, HAL.
    5. Dumrongrittikul, Taya & Anderson, Heather M., 2016. "How do shocks to domestic factors affect real exchange rates of Asian developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 67-85.
    6. K. Istrefi & B. Vonnak, 2015. "Delayed Overshooting Puzzle in Structural Vector Autoregression Models," Working papers 576, Banque de France.
    7. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
    8. Sui Luo & Yu‐Fan Huang & Richard Startz, 2021. "Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1111-1129, October.
    9. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
    10. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "Comparing the shape of recoveries: France, the UK and the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 327-334.
    11. Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
    12. Müller, Gernot & Wolf, Martin & Hettig, Thomas, 2019. "Exchange Rate Undershooting: Evidence and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 13597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Siroos Khademalomoom & Dinh Hoang Bach Phan, 2018. "Do Terrorist Attacks Impact Exchange Rate Behavior? New International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 547-561, January.
    14. Charles Engel, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," Working Papers 272011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. repec:awi:wpaper:0673 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
    17. Reinhold Heinlein & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2011. "Effects of monetary policy on the $/£ exchange rate. Is there a 'delayed overshooting puzzle'?," Studies in Economics 1124, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    18. Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics.
    19. Bhatta, Guna Raj & Nepal, Rabindra & Harvie, Charles & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2022. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Nahiyan Faisal Azad & Apostolos Serletis, 2020. "Monetary policy spillovers in emerging economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 664-683, October.
    21. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eru:erudwp:wp19-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sylvain (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erp12fr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.