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Unemployment Duration Before and After New deal

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Author Info
Podivinsky, P
McVicar, Duncan

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Abstract

A major active labour market policy for unemployed young people - the New Deal for 18-24 Year Olds or New Deal for Young People (ND18-24/NDYP) - was introduced throughout the UK in 1998. We examine its effects on unemployment duration by estimating hazard functions for unemployment outflows before and after its introduction. We add value to existing ND18-24 evaluations in the following ways. First, we examine previously unused administrative data for Northern Ireland. Second, we examine ND18-24 effects at all unemployment durations. Third, we estimate separately by gender. Fourth, exits to employment, education and training and other benefits are identified separately. Our results suggest that since ND18-24's introduction, young people are 25-50% less likely to experience year-long unemployment spells, with increased probabilities for all types of exit. ND18-24 is intended, however, to largely eradicate long term youth unemployment. We ask why this has not been the case in Northern Ireland.

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Paper provided by Economic Research Institute of Northern Ireland in its series Working Papers NIERC. with number 74.

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Length: 34 pages
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Handle: RePEc:eri:niercp:74

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Related research
Keywords: UNEMPLOYMENT ; YOUTH;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Böheim, René & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Duration and Exit States in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 2500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Rebecca Riley & Garry Young, 2001. "Does welfare-to-work policy increase employment?: Evidence from the UK New Deal for Young People," NIESR Discussion Papers 183, National Institute of Economic and Social Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Narendranathan, W. & Stewart, M.B., 1989. "Modelling The Probability Of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models With Flexible Baseline Hazards," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 331, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  5. Rebecca Riley & Garry Young, 2001. "The macroeconomic impact of the New Deal for Young People," NIESR Discussion Papers 184, National Institute of Economic and Social Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Diamond, Peter A, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 417-34, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bratberg, Espen & Vaage, Kjell, 2000. "Spell durations with long unemployment insurance periods," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 153-180, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Rebecca M. Blank, 2002. "Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1105-1166, December.
    Other versions:
  9. Baker, Michael & Melino, Angelo, 2000. "Duration dependence and nonparametric heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 357-393, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lynch, Lisa M, 1989. "The Youth Labor Market in the Eighties: Determinants of Re-employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 37-45, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Carling, Kenneth & Edin, Per-Anders & Harkman, Anders & Holmlund, Bertil, 1996. "Unemployment duration, unemployment benefits, and labor market programs in Sweden," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 313-334, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Arulampalam, Wiji & Stewart, Mark B, 1995. "The Determinants of Individual Unemployment Durations in an Era of High Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 321-32, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. John P Martin, 1998. "What Works Among Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from OECD Countries' Experiences," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Dale Mortensen, 1984. "Job Search and Labor Market Analysis," Discussion Papers 594, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Korpi, Tomas, 1995. "Effects of Manpower Policies on Duration Dependence in Re-employment Rates: The Example of Sweden," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(247), pages 353-71, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & John Van Reenen, 2001. "Evaluating the employment impact of a mandatory job search assistance program," IFS Working Papers W01/20, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  19. McVicar, D. & Podivinky, J., 2001. "Duration Dependence and Routes Out of Joblessness for Young People," Working Papers NIERC. 66, Economic Research Institute of Northern Ireland. [Downloadable!]
  20. Portugal, Pedro & Addison, John T., 2000. "Short- and long-term unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 107-112, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ralf Wilke, . "Unemployment Duration in the United Kingdom: An Incomplete Data Approach," Discussion Papers 09/02, University of Nottingham, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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