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Modélisation TAR des Fonctions de Demande d’Importations et d’Exportations au Maroc

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  • Khalil Meslouhi

    ()
    (Département d'Economie, Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales de Salé. Université Mohammed V Souissi)

  • Ahmed Laaboudi
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    Abstract

    Cette investigation se propose d’appliquer l'approche de la cointégration à seuil introduite par Enders et Siklos (2001) aussi bien aux fonctions de demande d’importations et d’exportations réelles au Maroc qu'à la relation entre ces importations et les exportations. La méthode permet de tester les relations de cointégration, d'une part, et de caractériser la nature de celles-ci d'autre part. La connaissance des seuils permet d’orienter plus efficacement la politique économique. C’est ainsi que pour la demande d'importations, l’étude montre que la relation de cointégration entre l’importation réelle et ses variables explicatives : les prix relatifs et le revenu, est stable uniquement au dessus du seuil estimé : (-0.108). S'agissant de la relation entre demande d’exportations, les prix relatifs et la demande mondiale, en cas de chocs, le retour à l'équilibre n'est possible qu'au dessous du seuil (-0.044). L'application de la démarche TAR à la relation de cointégration entre importations et exportations conclut également à l'existence d'un seuil. Comme les exportations constituent le facteur moteur aussi bien de la croissance que des importations, elles ne devraient pas décroître, toutes choses étant égales par ailleurs, en dessous du seuil, sinon il y a risque d’instabilité et d'insoutenabilté du commerce extérieur.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Economic Research Forum in its series Working Papers with number 432.

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    Length: 20 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2008
    Date of revision: Sep 2008
    Publication status: Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)
    Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:432

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