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External and Regional Shocks in the GCC Region: Implications for a Common Exchange Rate Regime

Author

Listed:
  • Eisa A. Aleisa

    (Monetary and Capital Market Dept. (MCM), International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC)

  • Shawkat Hammoudeh

    (Lebow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia)

  • Yuan Yuan

    (Lebow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia)

Abstract

Using a structural cointegrated VAR, this study examines the impacts of external shocks originating from the dollar, euro and yen zones as well as the regional shocks on the oilrich countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), viewed as a prospective monetary union. It focuses on the implications of shock impacts for selecting an apposite common exchange rate regime. The SVECM variance decomposition and impulse response analyses strongly underscore the relative impacts of the two external shocks over the regional ones. The findings imply that the world’s three major currencies should figure highly in the GCC’s common basket of currencies. Accordingly, a transitional movement to a more flexible exchange rate may be desirable for these trade-dependent economies in the long run, as argued in the optimal currency literature for developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Eisa A. Aleisa & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Yuan Yuan, 2008. "External and Regional Shocks in the GCC Region: Implications for a Common Exchange Rate Regime," Working Papers 426, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:426
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Victor A. Ginsburgh, 1973. "A Further Note on the Derivation of Quarterly Figures Consistent with Annual Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 22(3), pages 368-374, November.
    4. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    5. Mr. Ugo Fasano-Filho & Ms. Andrea Schaechter, 2003. "Monetary Union Among Member Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/006, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Crowder, William J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1998. "Cointegration, forecasting and international stock prices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 181-204.
    7. Mr. Behrouz Guerami & Mr. S. Nuri Erbas & Mr. George T. Abed, 2003. "The GCC Monetary Union: Some Considerations for the Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 2003/066, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marzovilla, Olga, 2010. "The impact of global economic imbalance on migrant workers and economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council," MPRA Paper 29466, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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