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Simulation Results of AgriPoliS about Diminishing Capital Subsidies and Restrictions

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  • Sahrbacher, Christoph
  • Sahrbacher, Amanda
  • Ostermeyer, Arlette

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of high interest rates for borrowed capital and credit restrictions on the structural development of four European regions. The method used is the model AgriPoliS which is a spatial-dynamic agent-based model. It is able to provide aggregated results at the regional level, but very individual results as well by considering farms as independent entities. Farms can choose between different investment options during the simulation. Several scenarios with different interest rates for borrowed capital on the one hand as well as with different levels of credit restrictions on the other hand are tested and compared. Results show that higher interest rates have less impact on declining production branches than on expanding ones. If they have the possibility farms invest in the most profitable production branch which relative profitability might have changed with high interest rates. Credit restrictions lead farms to choose smaller and cheaper investments than expensive and large ones. Results also show that income losses in both cases due to under-investment compared to the reference situation are partially compensated by lower rental prices. The impacts on structural change also differ depending on the region and the initial situation. In summary, credit subsidies or imperfections on credit markets might have indirect impacts on the type of dominant investment and therefore on the whole regional agricultural sector as well.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for European Policy Studies in its series Factor Markets Working Papers with number 167.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eps:fmwppr:167

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  1. Silke Hüttel & Oliver Mu�hoff & Martin Odening, 2010. "Investment reluctance: irreversibility or imperfect capital markets?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 51-76, March.
  2. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  3. Kathrin Happe, 2005. "Agricultural policies and farm structures - agent-based simulation and application to EU-policy reform," Others 0504011, EconWPA.
  4. Sahrbacher, Amanda, 2012. "Impacts of CAP reforms on farm structures and performance disparities: An agent-based approach," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe, Leib­niz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), volume 65, number 65.
  5. Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis & Swinnen, Johan F.M. & Van Herck, Kristine & Vranken, Liesbet, 2012. "Key Issues and Developments in Farmland Sales Markets in the EU Member States and Candidate Countries," Working Papers 120247, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  6. Happe, Kathrin, 2004. "Agricultural policies and farm structures: agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe, Leib­niz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), volume 30, number 14945.
  7. Pietola, Kyosti & Myyra, Sami & Heikkila, Anna-Maija, 2011. "The Penetration of Financial Instability in Agricultural Credit and Leveraging," Working Papers 117483, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  8. Pietola, Kyösti & Myyrä, Sami & Heikkilä, Anna-Maija, 2011. "The Penetration of Financial Instability in Agricultural Credit and Leveraging," Factor Markets Working Papers 97, Centre for European Policy Studies.
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