Restoring financial stability in the euro area
AbstractThe pricing of sovereign credit risk is a necessary component of the financial architecture of the European Monetary Union. However, unnecessarily high and volatile risk premia on government bonds are currently preventing effective financial intermediation within the euro area, thereby inhibiting its economic recovery. Several proposals have been made on how these risk premia should be brought down, namely i) permanent pooling of funding through joint bond issuance, ii) temporary liquidity assistance through multilateral funds, iii) debt buybacks using multilateral funds, and iv) debt restructuring. This Policy Brief by Christian Kopf, Director of Economic Research and Investment Strategy of the Spinnaker Capital Group, UK, attempts to evaluate these four proposals. He argues that joint bond issuance will not achieve a meaningful reduction of liquidity premia in the sovereign bond market; these instruments would either create perverse incentives or accelerate the sovereign debt crisis for peripheral Europe. An institution to provide temporary liquidity assistance is a necessary addition to the institutional framework of EMU – there needs to be an EMF to complement the ECB. Debt buybacks using multilateral funds can be a very useful tool for solvent countries such as Spain; they can prevent an overshooting of risk premia that could turn a sovereign liquidity crisis into a solvency crisis. However, a quantitative assessment shows that debt buybacks at market prices are insufficient to correct Greece’s debt overhang. In the case of Greece, a voluntary exchange of existing government bonds into new obligations, complemented by a buyback option at a steep discount to face value, could restore sovereign creditworthiness and allow the private sector to regain market access at acceptable interest rates. In the absence of such an orderly and controlled public debt reduction, highly indebted euro area governments will likely opt to restructure their sovereign debt unilaterally, if they fail to regain market access after several years. This could have unwelcome consequences for financial stability in the euro area, which should be avoided through a creative and cooperative approach to the problem.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for European Policy Studies in its series CEPS Papers with number 4292.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schnabel, Isabel, 2002.
"The German Twin Crisis of 1931,"
Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications
02-48, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2002.
"Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons,"
6821, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Market-Based Debt-Reduction Schemes," NBER Working Papers 2587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ugo Panizza & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006.
"The Elusive Costs of Sovereign Defaults,"
6713, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Jakob von WeizsÃ¤cker & Jacques Delpla, 2010. "The Blue Bond Proposal," Policy Briefs 403, Bruegel.
- Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
- repec:fth:inadeb:315 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin, 1996.
"Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America,"
5919, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin, 1996. "Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America," Research Department Publications 4020, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
- Jeremy Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1988. "The Buyback Boondoggle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 675-704.
- Mayer, Thomas & Gros, Daniel, 2011. "Debt reduction without default?," CEPS Papers 4150, Centre for European Policy Studies.
- Schmid, Kai Daniel & Schmidt, Michael, 2012. "EMU, the changing role of public debt and the revival of sovereign credit risk perception," University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 48, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
- Gunther Tichy, 2012. "Zum Versagen der Marktdisziplinierung in der Finanzkrise," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13, pages 58-80, 05.
- Fabian Lindner, 2013. "Banken treiben Eurokrise," IMK Report 82-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
- Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "A Fragile Eurozone in Search of a Better Governance," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(1), pages 1â30.
- De Grauwe, Paul, 2011. "Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," CEPS Papers 5523, Centre for European Policy Studies.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
- Gros, Daniel, 2012. "A simple model of multiple equilibria and sovereign default," CEPS Papers 7174, Centre for European Policy Studies.
- Valiante, Diego, 2011. "The Eurozone Debt Crisis: From its origins to a way forward," CEPS Papers 5985, Centre for European Policy Studies.
- Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia & Giovannini, Alessandro, 2012. "Central Banks in Times of Crisis: The FED vs. the ECB," CEPS Papers 7160, Centre for European Policy Studies.
- Keuschnigg, Christian, 2012. "Welche Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik braucht Europa?," Economics Working Paper Series 1201, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
- Büchel, Konstantin, 2013. "Do words matter? The impact of communication on the PIIGS' CDS and bond yield spreads during Europe's sovereign debt crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 412-431.
- Paul De Grauwe, 2011. "Managing a Fragile Eurozone," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(2), pages 40-45, 07.
- Canale, Rosaria Rita, 2011. "Default risk and fiscal sustainability in PIIGS countries," MPRA Paper 32215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Martin Schütte & Nicholas Blanchard & Michael Hüther & Bernd Lucke, 2012. "Eurobonds: Kann eine Unterteilung in »Blue Bonds« und »Red Bonds« das Risiko für die Euroländer minimieren?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(04), pages 03-15, 02.
- Neményi, Judit & Oblath, Gábor, 2012.
"Az euró bevezetésének újragondolása
[Rethinking Hungary s prospective adoption of the Euro]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 569-684.
- Paul De Grauwe, 2011. "La gobernanza de una frágil Eurozona," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(25), pages 13-41, July-Dece.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Margarita Minkova).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.