Political Forecasting? The IMF's Flawed Growth Projections for Argentina and Venezuela
AbstractThis report examines the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) projections for economic growth for Argentina and Venezuela in recent years. It shows that the IMF consistently made large errors in overestimating Argentina's GDP growth for the years 2000, 2001 and 2002, during the country's 1998-2002 depression, and large underestimates for the years 2003-2006, as Argentina's economy grew rapidly. The paper also notes the IMF's repeated large errors in underestimating Venezuela's GDP growth for the years since 2004.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in its series CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs with number 2007-10.
Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-04-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2007-04-14 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2007-04-14 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Roberto Frenkel & Martín Rapetti, 2007. "Argentina's Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies after the Convertibility Regime Collapse," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2007-12, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
- Maswana, Jean-Claude, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and Recession," Working Papers 15, JICA Research Institute.
- Mark Weisbrot, 2009. "CEPR Responds to the IMF’s Reply and Defense of Its Policies During the World Recession," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2009-41, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
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