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Real time estimates of GDP growth

Author

Listed:
  • de Groot, E.A.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

This paper describes the components of the EICIE, the Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy. This measure concerns quarterly and annual growth of Dutch real Gross Domestic Product. The key component of our real-time forecasting model for Dutch quarterly GDP is weekly staffing services obtained from Randstad company, which is single explanatory variable. We show that these two variables are cointegrated, and that the staffing variable helps to give quarterly GDP figures with just a two-week delay.

Suggested Citation

  • de Groot, E.A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2005. "Real time estimates of GDP growth," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-01, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:6743
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ard den Reijer, 2006. "The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?," DNB Working Papers 100, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Elke J. Jahn & Jan Bentzen, 2012. "What Drives the Demand for Temporary Agency Workers?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 26(3), pages 341-355, September.
    3. de Groot, E.A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2005. "Real time estimates of GDP growth, based on two-regime models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Philip Hans Franses, 2011. "Model selection for forecast combination," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(14), pages 1721-1727.
    5. ten Cate, Arie & Franses, Philip Hans, 2008. "Error-correction modelling in discrete and continuous time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 140-141, November.
    6. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & de Groot, E.A., 2006. "Long-term forecast for the Dutch economy," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    7. Ard den Reijer, 2007. "Identifying Regional and Sectoral Dynamics of the Dutch Staffing Labour Cycle," DNB Working Papers 153, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. den Reijer, Ard H.J., 2011. "Regional and sectoral dynamics of the Dutch staffing labor cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1826-1837, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current indicator; GDP; Staffing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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