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Bayesian Analysis of Realized Matrix-Exponential GARCH Models

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  • Asai, M.
  • McAleer, M.J.

Abstract

The paper develops a new realized matrix-exponential GARCH (MEGARCH) model, which uses the information of returns and realized measure of co-volatility matrix simultaneously. The paper also considers an alternative multivariate asymmetric function to develop news impact curves. We consider Bayesian MCMC estimation to allow non-normal posterior distributions. For three US nancial assets, we compare the realized MEGARCH models with existing multivariate GARCH class models. The empirical results indicate that the realized MEGARCH models outperform the other models regarding in-sample and out-of-sample performance. The news impact curves based on the posterior densities provide reasonable results.

Suggested Citation

  • Asai, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "Bayesian Analysis of Realized Matrix-Exponential GARCH Models," Econometric Institute Research Papers 2018-005/III, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:104259
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate GARCH; Realized Measure; Matrix-Exponential; Bayesian Markov; chain Monte Carlo method; Asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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