Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics
Abstract
We confront model misspecification in macroeconomics by proposing an analytic framework for merging multiple models. This framework allows us to 1) address uncertainty about models and parameters simultaneously and 2) trace out the historical periods in which one model dominates other models. We apply the framework to a richly parameterized DSGE model and a corresponding BVAR model. The merged model, fitting the data better than both individual models, substantially alters economic inferences about the DSGE parameters and about the implied impulse responses.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta) in its series Emory Economics with number 1012.Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:emo:wp2003:1012
Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://economics.emory.edu/home/journals/
More information through EDIRC
Related research
Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2012. "Confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 167-184.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics," Working Paper 2010-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2012. "Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 17791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-12-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-12-11 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2010-12-11 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-ECM-2010-12-11 (Econometrics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gordon, Robert J., 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226304557.
- John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2009.
"Optimal Prediction Pools,"
Working Paper Series
1017, European Central Bank.
- John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2008. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper Series 22-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
- Christopher A. Sims & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006.
"Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models,"
Working Paper
2006-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
- Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2011. "Optimal prediction pools," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 130-141, September.
- Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
- Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010.
"Sources Of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-Switching Dsge Approach,"
Emory Economics
1002, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
- Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2011. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations: A regime‐switching DSGE approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(2), pages 251-301, 07.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord90-1, August.
- James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2004.
"Normalization in econometrics,"
Working Paper
2004-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Normalization in Econometrics," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 221-252.
Citations
Blog mentions
As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:- Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2011-01-06 00:58:27
Cited by:
- Kirstin Hubrich & Robert J. Tetlow, 2012. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "DSGE model-based forecasting," Staff Reports 554, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emo:wp2003:1012For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sue Mialon).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

