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Policy Makers' Preferences, Party Ideology and the Political Business Cycle

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Stefan Krause ()
Fabio Mendez

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Abstract

We generate a time-series of relative preferences of policy makers for inflation stability using a sample of 24 countries in order to study the behavior of political parties. Such behavior is essential in both the partisan cycle models and the opportunistic political cycle analysis. Our evidence tends to support the partisan view, with right-wing parties exhibiting a higher preference towards stabilizing inflation than left-wing parties, while obtaining mixed results on the opportunistic behavior of incumbent parties. Finally, when we analyze the behavior of separate ideologies, we find overwhelming support of party resemblance on election year and evidence favoring an opportunistic conduct by right-wing parties.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta) in its series Emory Economics with number 0319.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:emo:wp2003:0319

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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. William D. Nordhaus, 1989. "Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1989-2), pages 1-68. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 1999. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 7426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  5. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy become more Efficient? a Cross-Country Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 408-433, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Stefan Krause, 2003. "Why Should Policy Makers Care About Inflation and Output Variability? The Role of Monetary Policy Stabilization under Asymmetric Information," Emory Economics 0313, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
  8. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1, pages 19-46. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2004. "Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(1), pages 105-126, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. repec:rus:hseeco:125618 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Mueller, Dennis C, 1976. "Public Choice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 395-433, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Taylor, John B, 2000. "Alternative Views of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: What Difference Do They Make for Monetary Policy?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 60-73, Winter.
  14. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Stefan Krause, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy and the Equivalency between the One-Period AD-AS Model and the Forward-Looking New Keynesian Model," Emory Economics 0317, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Caplin, Andrew & Nalebuff, Barry, 1991. "Aggregation and Social Choice: A Mean Voter Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. William D. Nordhaus, 1989. "Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 927, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  19. Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1990. "Political Models of the Business Cycle Should Be Revived," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 442-65, July.
  20. Cecchetti, Stephen G & McConnell, Margaret M & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2002. "Policymakers' Revealed Preferences and the Output-Inflation Variability Trade-Off: Implications for the European System of Central Banks," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 596-618, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Castro, Vitor & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2004. "Political business cycles and inflation stabilization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 1-6, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Carlo A. Favero & Riccardo Rovelli, . "Modeling and identifying central banks' preferences," Working Papers 148, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Beck, Thorsten & Clarke, George & Groff, Alberto & Keefer, Philip & Walsh, Patrick, 2000. "New tools and new tests in comparative political economy - the database of political institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2283, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stefan Krause & Fabio Mendez, 2006. "Does Opportunism Pay Off? A Study of Vote Functions and Policy Preferences," Emory Economics 0604, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
  2. Stefan Krause & Fabio Mendez, 2005. "Institutions, Arrangements, and Preferences for Inflation Stability: Evidence and Lessons from a Panel Data Analysis," Emory Economics 0501, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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