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Production, Trade, and International Comovement

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Author Info
Kevin X.D. Huang
Zheng Liu ()

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Abstract

This paper proposes a unified theory to explain two observed patterns of international business cycle comovements: the correlations in aggregate output and in consumption between OECD countries tend to be much higher than those between emerging market economies such as Latin America; and within each region, the output correlations are systematically greater than the consumption correlations. The model departs from the standard international business cycle model in that it incorporates a vertical production and trading chain, which is a feature of growing importance in modern world economy. The vertical chain embodies a powerful propagation mechanism that helps generate the observed magnitude and patterns of international correlations following monetary policy shocks.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta) in its series Emory Economics with number 0308.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:emo:wp2003:0308

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Web page: http://www.economics.emory.edu/Working_Papers/wp/
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  4. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. David Hummels & Dana Rapoport & Kei-Mu Yi, 1998. "Vertical specialization and the changing nature of world trade," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 79-99. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Bergin, Paul R. & Feenstra, Robert C., 2001. "Pricing-to-market, staggered contracts, and real exchange rate persistence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 333-359, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 2000. "Vertical International Trade as a Monetary Transmission Mechanism in an Open Economy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1533, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2002. "International Business Cycles with Endogenous Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 907-928, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report 223, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Basu, Susanto, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 719-51, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Louis Phaneuf, 2002. "Why does the cyclical behavior of real wages change over time?," Research Working Paper RWP 02-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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