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The Decline In US Output Volatility: Structural Changes in Inventories or Sales?

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Author Info
Ana Maria Herrero
Elena Pesavento ()

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Abstract

Various hypothesis have been offered as explanations for the decline in US output volatility during the mid-1980's: "better policy", "good luck", technological change, and the presence of non-convexities in the firms' cost function. We find evidence of multiple breaks in manufacturing for various inventories and sales series. Mainly an increase in the variance in the 1970s was followed by a decrease in the 1980s and 1990s. Reductions in the volatility of inventories was concentrated in materials and work-in-process, with minor falls in finished goods. Our results suggest that "better inventory holding techniques" might not be enough to account for the reduction in the volatility of output. In fact, a mechanism able to generate shifts in the variance of sales, such as "good luck" or "better monetary policy", must have contributed to the rise in output volatility in the 1970s and it's subsequent decline since the mid-1980s.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta) in its series Emory Economics with number 0301.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:emo:wp2003:0301

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  6. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2004. "Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 10384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  1. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2007. "Wavelet Variance Analysis of Output in G-7 Countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(3), pages 1435-1435. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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