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¿Que tan predecible es la política monetaria? Un análisis econométrico del contenido informativo de los comunicados del Banco de México

Author

Listed:
  • Rodolfo Cermeño

    (Division of Economics, CIDE)

  • Claudia Navarrete

Abstract

In this paper we investigate whether the communication bias of the Bank of Mexico provides information that helps to anticipate the course of monetary policy in subsequent periods. We first construct an objective index of the communication bias, based upon an statistical analysis of key terms and phrases stated in the monthly communications of Banxico. Then, we explore, using probit models, if the communication bias is related to the policy actions taken in subsequent periods, after controlling for inflation expectations and the output gap, as Taylor's rule would suggest. We find that the communication strategy followed by the Bank of Mexico is effective only in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodolfo Cermeño & Claudia Navarrete, 2011. "¿Que tan predecible es la política monetaria? Un análisis econométrico del contenido informativo de los comunicados del Banco de México," Working papers DTE 514, CIDE, División de Economía.
  • Handle: RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte514
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    File URL: http://www.economiamexicana.cide.edu/RePEc/emc/pdf/DTE/DTE514.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; Mexico; Banxico; probit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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