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Muddling Through: Moisy Equlibrium Selection

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Author Info
Ken Binmore
Larry Samuelson
Abstract

This paper examines an evolutionary model in which the primary source of noise that moves the model between equilibria is not arbitrarily improbvable mutations but mistakes in learning. We model strategy selection as a birth-death process, allowing us to and a simple, closed-form solution for the stationary distribution of the model even though we take the noise to be bounded away from zero. We examine equilibrium selection by considering the limiting case as the population gets large, eliminating aggregate noise from the model. Conditions are established under which the risk-dominant equilibrium in a 2 x 2 game is selected by the model as well as conditions under which the payoff-dominant equilibrium is selected.

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Paper provided by ESRC Centre on Economics Learning and Social Evolution in its series ELSE working papers with number 036.

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Handle: RePEc:els:esrcls:036

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Related research
Keywords: Equilibrium selection; Evolutionary games; Mutations; Risk dominance.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General

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  2. Bagnoli, M. & Bergstrom, T., 1989. "Log-Concave Probability And Its Applications," Papers 89-23, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
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  3. Ellison, Glenn, 1993. "Learning, Local Interaction, and Coordination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1047-71, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fudenberg, Drew & Harris, Christopher, 1992. "Evolutionary Dynamics with Aggregate Shocks," IDEI Working Papers 13, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
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  5. Binmore, Ken & Larry Samuelson, 1994. "Muddling Through: Noisy Equilibrium Selection," Discussion Paper Serie B 275, University of Bonn, Germany.
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  6. Arthur J Robson & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 1999. "Efficient Equilibrium Selection in Evolutionary Games with Random Matching," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2112, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Bendor, J. & Mookherjee, D. & Ray, D., 1994. "Aspirations, Adaptive Learning and Cooperation in Reapeted Games," Papers 27, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  8. Robson, Arthur J., 1996. "A Biological Basis for Expected and Non-expected Utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 397-424, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Blume Lawrence E., 1993. "The Statistical Mechanics of Strategic Interaction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 387-424, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. repec:att:wimass:199324 is not listed on IDEAS
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  13. Noeldecke,Georg & Samuelson,Larry, . "An evolutionary analysis of backward and forward induction," Discussion Paper Serie B 228, University of Bonn, Germany.
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  14. Young, H Peyton, 1993. "The Evolution of Conventions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 57-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1996. "Case-Based Optimization," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1993. "Case-Based Optimization," Discussion Papers 1039, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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