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Valuing Flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plant

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  • Chamorro Gómez, José Manuel
  • Abadie, Luis M.

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the valuation of options stemming from the flexibility in an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Power Plant. First we use as a base case the opportunity to invest in a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Power Plant, deriving the optimal investment rule as a function of fuel price and the remaining life of the right to invest. Additionally, the analytical solution for a perpetual option is obtained. Second, the valuation of an operating IGCC Power Plant is studied, with switching costs between states and a choice of the best operation mode. The valuation of this plant serves as a base to obtain the value of the option to delay an investment of this type. Finally, we derive the value of an opportunity to invest either in a NGCC or IGCC Power Plant, that is, to choose between an inflexible and a flexible technology, respectively. Numerical computations involve the use of one- and two-dimensional binomial lattices that support a mean-reverting process for the fuel prices. Basic parameter values refer to an actual IGCC power plant currently in operation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I in its series IKERLANAK with number 2005-21.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ehu:ikerla:200521

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Postal: Dpto. de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I, Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain
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Keywords: real options; power plants; flexibility; stochastic costs;

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References

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  1. Chen Yu-Fu & Funke Michael, 2004. "Working Time and Employment Under Uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-23, September.
  2. Malcolm P. Baker & E. Scott Mayfield & John E. Parsons, 1998. "Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 115-148.
  3. Metcalf, Gilbert E. & Hassett, Kevin A., 1995. "Investment under alternative return assumptions Comparing random walks and mean reversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1471-1488, November.
  4. He, Hua. & Pindyck, Robert S., 1989. "Investments in flexible production capacity," Working papers 2102-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  5. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D., 2001. "Flexibility versus Commitment in Personnel Management," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 515-556, December.
  6. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2003. "Implementing a stochastic model for oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-238, May.
  7. Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1978. "Project Valuation with Mean-Reverting Cash Flow Streams," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(5), pages 1317-31, December.
  8. David G. Laughton & Henry D. Jacoby, 1993. "Reversion, Timing Options, and Long-Term Decision-Making," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
  9. Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
  10. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
  11. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2003. "The effect of mean reversion on investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 377-396, November.
  12. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D., 2002. "Option Value, Uncertainty, and the Investment Decision," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 341-374, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Blum, Helcio & Legey, Luiz F.L., 2012. "The challenging economics of energy security: Ensuring energy benefits in support to sustainable development," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1982-1989.
  2. Somayeh Heydari & Nick Ovenden & Afzal Siddiqui, 2012. "Real options analysis of investment in carbon capture and sequestration technology," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 109-138, February.
  3. Stein-Erik Fleten & Erkka Näsäkkälä, 2004. "Gas Fired Power Plants: Investment Timing, Operating Flexibility and Abandonment," Finance 0404010, EconWPA.
  4. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2009. "The Economics of Gasification: A Market-Based Approach," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 662-694, August.
  5. Fernández Macho, Francisco Javier, 2011. "Stochastic Surface Models for Commodity Futures: A 2D Kalman Filter Approach," BILTOKI 2011-05, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
  6. Luis M. Abadie, 2009. "Valuation of Long-Term Investments in Energy Assets under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 738-768, September.
  7. Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
  8. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Multi-Commodity Real Options Analysis of Power Plant Investments: Discounting Endogenous Risk Structures," FCN Working Papers 22/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  9. GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "A real options model for electricity capacity expansion," CORE Discussion Papers 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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