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The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation

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  • Vázquez Pérez, Jesús

Abstract

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of an augmented version of the Taylor rule (ATR) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of switching regimes, one characterized by low volatility and the other by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the term spread, inflation and the economic activity index depend on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the ATR has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period. However, a closer look at the Greenspan period shows the existence of two alternative regimes and that the response of the Fed funds rate to inflation has not been significant during this period once the term spread is considered.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II in its series DFAEII Working Papers with number 2003-07.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:200307

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Postal: Dpto. de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II, = Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain
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Keywords: fed funds rate; switching regimes; term spread;

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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  3. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2003. "Backward-Looking Interest Rate Rules, Interest Rate Smoothing and Macroeconomic Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3928, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2316, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  10. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-28, August.
  11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  12. Jonas D.M. Fisher, 2000. "Forecasting inflation with a lot of data," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar.
  13. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
  14. Bec Frédérique & Ben Salem Mélika & Collard Fabrice, 2002. "Asymmetries in Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence for U.S. French and German Central Banks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, July.
  15. Dolado, Juan J. & María-Dolores, Ramón & Naveira Barrero, Manuel, 2000. "Asymmetries In Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence For Four Central Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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