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Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

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  • Vázquez Pérez, Jesús

Abstract

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II in its series DFAEII Working Papers with number 2002-33.

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Date of creation: Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:200233

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Postal: Dpto. de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II, = Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain
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Keywords: Lucas proof; term structure; switching-regimes;

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References

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  1. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-28, May.
  2. Roger E.A. Farmer, 1989. "The Lucas Critique Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria," UCLA Economics Working Papers 551, UCLA Department of Economics.
  3. Laurence Broze & Ariane Szafarz, 1991. "The Econometric Analysis of Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/649, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-28, August.
  5. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
  6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  7. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1713, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  8. Charles L. Evans & David Marshall, 2001. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Working Paper Series WP-01-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
  12. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  14. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.
  15. Favero, C. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing The Lucas Critique: A Review," Economics Series Working Papers 99101, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  16. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  17. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  18. Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628.
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Cited by:
  1. Vázquez, Jesús, 2008. "The comovement between monetary and fiscal policy instruments during the post-war period in the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 412-424.
  2. Yilmazkuday, Hakan & Akay, Koray, 2008. "An analysis of regime shifts in the Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 885-898, September.
  3. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.

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