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Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates

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Author Info
Mª Jose Gutierrez () (Universidad del País Vasco)
Jesús Vazquez () (Universidad del País Vasco)

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Abstract

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper …nds evidence that a two-regime switching model …ts the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II in its series DFAEII Working Papers with number 200224.

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Date of creation: 24 Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:200224

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Postal: Dpto. de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II, Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain
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Related research
Keywords: term-structure; risk premium; Markov regime-switching;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Blinder, Alan S, 1997. "Is There a Core of Practical Macroeconomics That We Should All Believe?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 240-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Campbell, John Y, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-52, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Dominguez, Emilio & Novales, Alfonso, 2000. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in Eurodeposits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 713-736, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "The Term Structure of Euro-Rates: Some Evidence in Support of the Expectations Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1258, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Chow, Gregory C, 1989. "Rational versus Adaptive Expectations in Present Value Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 376-84, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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