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Output dynamics in an endogenous growth model

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  • Moral Zuazo, María Paz
  • Barañano Mentxaka, Ilaski

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze whether endogenous growth RBC models are consistent with two stylized facts about U.S. output dynamics. First, GNP growth is positively correlated in the short run and it has a weak negative autocorrelation over longer horizons. Second, GNP appears to have an important trend-reverting component that has a hump-shaped MA representation. In particular, this article considers a stochastic version of Lucas' (1988) model in the absence of externalities in discrete time with two modifications: agents derive utility not only from consumption but also from leisure and labor adjustment costs are included. Results reveal that combining the endogenous character of the engine of growth with labor adjustment costs may help solve the Cogley-Nason (1995) puzzle since it provides a stronger propagation mechanism which, in turn, improves the model's ability to generate realistic output dynamics.

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Paper provided by Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística) in its series BILTOKI with number 2003-10.

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Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ehu:biltok:200310

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Postal: Dpto. de Econometría y Estadística, Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain
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Keywords: real business cycle models; endogenous growth; propagation mechanism;

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References

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  1. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
  2. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  3. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z., 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time Over the Business Cycles," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9104, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  4. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  5. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1984. "The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 735, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  7. Matheron, Julien, 2003. "Is growth useful in RBC models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 605-622, May.
  8. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S126-50, October.
  9. Larry Jones & Rodolfo Manuelli & Henry Siu, 2000. "Growth and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Einarsson, Tor & Marquis, Milton H., 1997. "Home production with endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 551-569, August.
  11. Ozlu, Elvan, 1996. "Aggregate economic fluctuations in endogenous growth models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-47.
  12. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  14. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Moral Zuazo, María Paz & Barañano Mentxaka, Ilaski, 2007. "Consumption-Leisure Trade-offs and Persistency in Business Cycles," BILTOKI 2007-05, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).

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