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Bayesian learning in mis-specified models

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  • Schinkel, Maarten-Pieter
  • Tuinstra, Jan
  • Vermeulen, Dries

Abstract

A central unanswered question in economic theory is that of price formation in disequilibrium. This paper lays down the methodological groundwork for a model that has been suggested as an answer to this question (Arrow, 1959; Fisher, 1983; Hahn, 1989). We consider sellers that monopolistically compete in prices but have incomplete information about the structure of the market they face. They each entertain a simple demand conjecture in which sales are perceived to depend on the own price only, and set prices to maximize expected profits. Prior beliefs on the parameters of conjectured demand are updated into posterior beliefs upon each observation of sales at proposed prices, using Bayes' rule. The rational learning process thus constructed drives the price dynamics of the model. Its properties are analysed. Moreover, a sufficient condition is provided, relating objectively possible events and subjective beliefs, under which the price process is globally stable on a conjectural equilibrium for almost all objectively possible developments of history.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística) in its series BILTOKI with number 2000-05.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ehu:biltok:200005

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Postal: Dpto. de Econometría y Estadística, Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain
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Related research

Keywords: global stability; oligopolistic price setting; conjectural equilibrium; bayesian learning;

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  1. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1993. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1019-45, September.
  2. Hahn, F H, 1987. "Information, Dynamics and Equilibrium," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 34(4), pages 321-34, November.
  3. Nyarko, Yaw, 1991. "Learning in mis-specified models and the possibility of cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 416-427, December.
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