Uncertainty and Real Options. Investment and Development of Fishing Resources (II)
Abstract[EN] The irreversibility of the investment expenditures in a fishery and the high degree of uncertainty attaching to the price of the fishing resources make the evaluation of investment opportunity in a fishery particularly difficult. The net-present-value proposes the following rule: "Invest in a project when the present value of its expected cash flows is at least as large as its cost". As the expenditures are largely irreversibles (sunk cost that cannot be recovered) and the fishing investment can be delayed, the previous rule is incorrect. Thus, in this paper it is used an option based approach to capital budgeting because under this technique management have valuable flexibility, giving the firm the opportunity to wait for new information to arrive about prices. The paper presents a model that determines when (at which price level) it is optimum for a firm invest in a fishery and what it is the value of the investment opportunity. The natural growth rate and production function of fishing resources are those of Shaefer model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística) in its series BILTOKI with number 2000-02.
Date of creation: Jan 2000
Date of revision:
Postal: Dpto. de Econometría y Estadística, Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q22 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Fishery
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2000-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2000-01-24 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-ENV-2000-01-24 (Environmental Economics)
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