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The causes of recession following stabilization

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  • Stanislaw Gomulka
  • Paul Johnson
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    Abstract

    This paper attempts the following two questions, both with reference to the response of the Polish economy to the stabilization and liberalization plan of January 1, 1990: why was the fall in output much larger and the inflation rate much higher than anticipated? Was the contraction of aggregate demand excessive? The paper argues that there is evidence for an excessively contractionary macroeconomic policy in the first quarter of 1990, but the policies in the second half of 1990 were, if anything, too expansionary. New interpretation is offered on the impact of devaluation on activity and on the reasons for understanding the inflation rate.

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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/21107/
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History in its series Economic History Working Papers with number 21107.

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    Date of creation: Jun 1991
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    Handle: RePEc:ehl:wpaper:21107

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    Postal: LSE, Dept. of Economic History Houghton Street London, WC2A 2AE, U.K.
    Phone: +44 (0) 20 7955 7084
    Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/economicHistory/
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    Cited by:
    1. Holger Schmieding, 1993. "From plan to market: On the nature of the transformation crisis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 129(2), pages 216-253, June.
    2. Horst, H.A.F. ter, 1996. "Socialism, Capitalism, and Transition with Special Reference to Poland," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-73689, Tilburg University.
    3. Jan Winiecki, 2002. "An Inquiry into the Early Drastic Fall of Output in Post-communist Transition: An Unsolved Puzzle," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 5-29.
    4. Gomulka, S. & Lane, J., 1997. "Recession dynamics following an external price shock in a transition economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 177-203, June.
    5. Ariane Tichit, 1998. "Reprise économique dans les pays post-communistes : application d'un modèle de durée," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 136(5), pages 73-92.
    6. Stanislaw Gomulka & Danny Quah, 1994. "Lessons from Economic Transformation and the Road Forward," CEP Occasional Papers 05, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Stanislaw Gomulka, 1994. "Lessons from Economic Transformation and the Road Forward," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0017, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.

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